Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX Surges “Framework of a Future Deal” Over Greenland
US stocks are surging after President Trump cancelled planned tariffs on NATO members and announced “a framework of a future deal” on Greenland - what are the next levels to watch on the Nasdaq 100?
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Nasdaq 100 Key Points
- US stocks are surging after President Trump cancelled planned tariffs on NATO members and announced “a framework of a future deal” on Greenland.
- From traders’ perspective, the proximate cause for concern (an escalating trade or military conflict between the US and Europe) has passed.
- Today’s Nasdaq 100 rally tilts the probabilities toward another test of the year-to-date highs just below 26,000, and potentially the record highs near 26,250 in time.
Chalk another one up to “markets as a discounting mechanism”!
After falling sharply at the (holiday-delayed) start of the week, US indices had already begun to recover this morning after President Trump ruled out using military force to acquire Greenland. That recovery is turning into a full-on bullish reversal in the afternoon after President Trump announced that threatened tariffs on NATO members would be suspended and that “a framework of a future deal” on Greenland:
Time will tell if the framework ultimately amounts to any substantive changes, but from traders’ perspective, the proximate cause for concern (an escalating trade or military conflict between the US and Europe) has passed.
Now, traders will turn their focus back to Q4 earnings season (headlined by next week’s “Magnificent 7” names: Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple) and the brewing fiscal crisis in Japan as the next potential market drivers. 
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart
Source: Tradingview, StoneX
From a technical perspective, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is seeing the strongest bounce of the major US indices. As the chart above shows, the index is on track to put in a large “bullish engulfing candle” on the daily chart, marking a shift from selling to buying pressure and increasing the probability of a near-term bottom forming.
Assuming today’s low holds, it keeps the trend of “higher lows” intact and tilts the probabilities toward another test of the year-to-date highs just below 26,000, and potentially the record highs near 26,250 in time. Only a break below the 100-day MA (currently around 25,000) would shift the medium-term bias back to neutral.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
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