Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Barclays

EUR/USD holds above 1.13

EUR/USD is edging higher as risk sentiment improves. With no notable Russian headlines overnight, fears of war have calmed and risk appetite is cautiously higher

The euro is shrugging off weaker German consumer morale after the GFK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to -8.1 in March, falling from -6.7 in February. Expectations had been for a rise to -6.1.

The fall in consumer morale comes as inflation remains elevated and producer prices sit at 25% suggesting that inflation is unlikely to fall any time soon.

Todays data comes following upbeat German IFO business sentiment data yesterday.

Looking ahead Eurozone CPI inflation is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 5.1%.

There is no high impacting US data due today.

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD has traded relatively range bound over the past 10 days capped on the upside by the 100 sma a 1.1390 and on the lower band by 1.1290.

The RSI is showing few clues over what to expect. For a breakout trade sellers could look for a move below 1.1290 towards support a 1.1230 the December low and 1.1190 the November low.

Buyers could look for a move over 1.1390 to target 1.1490 the 2022 high.

Barclays jumps as profits more than double

 Barclays has jumped higher after reporting a record annual profit  and returning £2.5 billion to share holders via dividends and a buyback.

The bank recorded profits of £8.4 billion, above expectations of £8.1 billion and almost triple the £3.1 billion recorded in 2020. The bank said that it would buyback £1 billion and pay out a 4p per share dividend.

The strong numbers came on the back of a strong performance in the investment banking arm as after it released £700 million from bad loan reserves.

Where next for Barclays' share price?

Barclays has been trending lower since mid- January, hitting a two-month low of 185p yesterday. Barclays has rebounded off that low and is attempting to re-take its 50 & 100 sma.

The receding bearish bias on the MACD is giving buyers hope of further gains. However, the long upper wick suggests that the stock failed to find much acceptance at the 198p level.

Failure to re-take the 50 & 100 sma could see the share price fall back towards 190p ahead of yesterday’s low of 185p.

A close above the 50 & 100 sma would be significant and could see buyers look to break above 200p round number and 203p the October high. A move over 209p could see the bias turn bullish.