US Dollar, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Register for the next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, November 9, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Event risk this week: RBA & BoE rate decisions, US Midterm elections, Eurozone CPI and NFP.
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

Follow these setups daily in the Opening Bell, Tuesday-Thursday at 9:30am ET.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: Sterling has rallied nearly 2.4% off the yearly low with GBP/USD attempting to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance. The bulls are testing resistance today at the 200-day moving average, currently near ~1.3428. This level converges on the median line of the October pitchfork and is backed closely by the February low-day close (LDC) and the 2026 yearly open at 1.3465/74. A breach / daily close above this key pivot zone is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the July swing high at 1.3558 and the 1.3590/93- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the 2025 May & August swing highs. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the most recent advance and the weekly / monthly open at 1.3381/89. Near-term bullish invalidation is now raised to the May low at 1.3302. This level converges on the lower parallel later this week and a break / daily close below would be needed to invalidate the October uptrend. Subsequent support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the advance off the yearly lows and the October open at 1.3256/64.

Bottom line: Sterling is trading just below resistance into the monthly open with the Bank of England rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on tap Thursday. From a trading standpoint,  losses would need to be limited to 1.33 for the uptrend to remain viable with a daily close above 1.3474 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Notes: USD/CAD plunged more than 2.5% off the yearly high with a three-week selloff now testing key support at 1.3941/49. This region is defined by the 2025 September high-day close (HDC) / October low day close (LDC) and the 61.8% retracement of the of the July advance. Note that the median line of the October pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / daily close below this level would be needed to mark downtrend resumption. Subsequent support rests with the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.3890) backed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.3854 and the August low-day close (LDC) at 1.3767.

Initial resistance is eyed at the July low day close (LDC) at 1.4014 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the yearly high at 1.4079. The upper parallel converges on this level mid-week and a breach / daily close above this slope would suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the November high and the 2026 high-week close (HWC) at 1.4140.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is trading just above key support into the monthly open and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone over the next few days. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.4079 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3941 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report and Canada employment on Friday morning. The data series has the potential to fuel some volatility here. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: USD/CHF has fallen more than 2.5% off the yearly high with the bears attempting to break a major support pivot today 8200/15- a region defined by the 100% extension of the January advance, the October close low, the July swing high, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline. The median-line of the October pitchfork converges on this zone today and a break / daily close below would threaten downtrend resumption towards the September opening range high at 8157 and the next major technical consideration at 2025 August high close / November high and the 61.8% retracement of the August rally at  8120/25. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Weekly / monthly open resistance is eyed at 8250 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to the October reversal close at 8278. Note that this level converges on the upper parallel early next week and strength surpassing this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: Daily momentum has now fallen to the lowest levels since Ausgust with price attempting to break below a major pivot zone. Watch today’s close. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 8250 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 8200 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. Event risk out of Switzerland is limited so look for the US Dollar to drive price action here.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex