Wall Street Forecast: Dow rises after a strong April & impressive Apple earnings

US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.29%, S&P futures 0.28%  & Nasdaq futures -0.06%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.5% & DAX 0.26%

• US stocks rise after best monthly performance in years in April
• The Fed leaves rates unchanged in a hawkish hold
• Apple jumps after record iPhone sales
• Oil rises across the week as the Strait remains closed

US futures rise at the start of a new month

US futures are heading higher on Friday, boosted by strong earnings, with US indices posting their best monthly gains in years despite oil prices holding above $110 per barrel.

April proved to be a strong month for US equities, with a rebound in risk sentiment driven by optimism surrounding a ceasefire in the Middle East, combined with solid earnings from corporate America. This helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. The S&P 500 rose 10% over the month, the Nasdaq gained 15%, and the Dow Jones climbed 7%—its strongest monthly performance since November 2024.

These strong gains come as markets enter May, traditionally a weaker period for equities. Since 1945 through April 2026, the S&P 500 has gained an average of around 2% between May and October, compared to roughly 7% between November and April.

Looking ahead, geopolitical risks and the potential for a more hawkish Federal Reserve could challenge further upside. While solid earnings have limited any downside. However, with earnings season starting to slow, the market will need another distraction. THE US NFP report is due next week and comes after the lowest weekly jobless claims at the end of April since 1969.

Corporate movers

Apple is rising over 3% premarket after strong earnings. The company reported EPS of $2.01, beating expectations of $1.95, on revenue of $111.18 billion versus $109.66 billion forecast, marking 17% growth. iPhone sales reached $56.99 billion, slightly below forecasts but still a record, up 22% year-on-year. Services revenue also beat expectations at $30.98 billion. Apple announced a $100 billion share buyback and increased its dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are rising despite reporting lower year-on-year profits. Exxon’s net income fell 45% and Chevron’s dropped 36%, though both beat expectations. As a result the share prices are gaining 1-2% respectively. Exxon noted that hedging positions in the quarter weighed on results.

Dow Jones – Technical analysis

The Dow Jones has recovered from its 44,810 low in 2026, rising above the 50-day SMA, but momentum is struggling near the key 50,000 psychological level.

A break above 50,000 would open the door towards 50,500 and fresh record highs. On the downside, support lies around 48,500—a key level that has acted as both support and resistance in recent months. A break below this level could expose the 50-day SMA at 47,820 and the 200-day SMA near 47,300.

FX markets – USD softer, GBP firm

The US dollar is edging lower on Friday, extending losses after intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. The dollar is down around 0.5% this week, despite the Fed’s hawkish hold, which has reduced expectations for rate cuts this year.

EUR/USD is steady around 1.1750 amid lighter trading due to a European public holiday. The European Central Bank held rates at 2% this week, while inflation rose to 3% year-on-year in April.

GBP/USD is hovering near 1.36, close to a 10-week high, as traders digest a week of central bank decisions. The Bank of England left rates unchanged, while Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted rising inflation risks alongside weaker growth prospects.

Oil – Supply concerns drive weekly gains

Oil prices are rising on Friday, with US–Iran peace talks still stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked.

Brent crude has risen nearly 6% this week, while WTI is on track to gain around 12%. Brent reached $126 per barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 2022.

Supply remains disrupted due to the ongoing blockade and restrictions on Iranian exports. The longer the disruption persists, the greater the upward pressure on prices. A renewed push towards negotiations or signs of demand destruction could help ease prices.