A stronger USD, prompted by the Trump probe, has seen metals under pressure with gold shedding over -1.8% by the close.
Whilst prices have remained supported above 1,480 the potential for near-term weakness seems apparent, given yesterday’s 2-bar reversal. Eagle-eyed candlestick traders could note that yesterday’s bearish bar doesn’t quite pass as a bearish engulfing or outside day. Yet the -1.8% decline was the 2nd most bearish daily range this month and marks a prominent lower high, a scenario discussed two weeks ago. “…given the levels of support nearby [1,480], a minor bounce could materialise and form a lower high, ahead of breaking below $1480”. Furthermore, a bearish divergence had been forming with RSI since late June to warn of weakness to the trend, although prices need to break beneath 1,480 to confirm a reversal.
- Ultimately, the daily trend remains bullish above 1,480, so bulls could hold out to see if a higher low is formed or seek to buy dips above this level.
- Bears could seek counter-trend setups whilst the 1,535.69 high caps as resistance and target 1,480
- Alternatively, bears could wait for a break below 1,480 to confirm a head and shoulders top, If successful, the H&S projects an initial target just above 1,400
We also note that the S&P500 and USD/JPY have printed 2-bar bullish reversals above support zones. Whilst we won’t claim it to be a true risk-on signal, that is coincides with the bearish candle on gold adds credence to the argument that gold could face headwinds over the near-term. So traders would do well to also monitor these markets alongside gold for a full picture to the dynamics (ie, USD/JPY reversing could be a warning for gold bears that downside may be limited).
