Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, oil

EUR/USD looks to GDP data for fresh impetus. WTI breaks above key resistance after a report shows OPEC+ group's adherence to output cuts.

Energy 3

EUR/USD waivers ahead of Q4 GDP data 

holds onto gains as just off 2.5 week low reached on Monday as attention turns to Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP data.

The slow uncertain vaccine rollout in Europe has dragged on the Euro along with a record slump in German retail sales, which raises concerns over consumer spending in the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Eurozone GDP expected to contract-2.1% in Q4.

US Dollar trades around 7 week high although steps towards bypassing Republicans over Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus could keep US under pressure.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades below its 50 & 100 sma, the RSI is in bearish territory, the outlook for the pair is bearish on the 4 hour chart. However, a sustained break below strong support at 1.2060/55 is needed to confirm the bearish bias. This could accelerate a decline towards the key psychological level of 1.20 before support at 1.1975 is tested.

Should support at 1.2060 hold a move back above 1.21 could see momentum pick up and resistance at 1.2140 the confluence of the 50 & 100 sma tested ahead of 1.2185 horizontal support from swing high on 22nd January. A move above 1.2235 could see the bulls gain traction.

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WTI breaks above $54 key resistance

Oil prices are on the rise after major producers showed that they were cutting crude output adhering to commitments on restraints.
OPEC members compliance with the agreement supports the market which has been marred by demand concerns amid ongoing covid locks downs.

WTI technical analysis

WTI has been trading range bound since mid-January, capped by 51.75 on the lower band and by 53.90 on the upper band.

Overnight WTI broke above the upper band advancing to an almost yearly high of 54.25 confirming the move above the 50 & 100 sma in the previous session.

Bulls could hold onto control whilst the RSI remains in bullish territory but below overbought conditions. 54.70 the pre-pandemic February peak could offer resistance. A break-through here could bring round number 55.00 into target and 57.50 around the January 2020 low.

On the flip, should resistance turn support at 53.90 break, 52.60 the confluence of the 50& 100 sma could be tested. A break below 51.75 is needed for a potentially deeper selloff to 50.50 and the key psychological level $50.

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