Yield Curve Inversion & Dow Transport Index Point To Problems Ahead
Fiona Cincotta August 15, 2019 11:10 AM
Dow futures point higher but gains could be limited
An inversion of the 2 year and 10-year bond yield curves in the previous session sent panic across the markets. The DOW closed down 800 points, below its 200-day moving average as investors sold out of riskier assets, such as stocks, and moved into safer havens such as bonds, gold and the Japanese yen.
The fact is that no one actually knows what is next for the markets. However, the signs flashing from the markets are not great. Far from it. In addition to the inverted 2 year and 10 year yield curve, the Dow transport index which is often viewed as a lead indicator for wider stock market movements is also showing signs of strain. The DJT is currently down 11.5% from its April high, whilst the Dow is down just 6.8%.
US retail sales data is up next. Expectations are for retail sales to have increased a steady 0.3% month on month. Given current slowdown fears and surprise to the downside could result in US futures quickly giving up this morning’s gains.
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