- New Zealand Q2 GDP slumps 0.9%, triple expectation
- Broad-based weakness across sectors
- NZD drops as traders ramped easing bets
- Market focus turns to how far RBNZ will cut rates
New Zealand Dollar Outlook Summary
New Zealand economic growth nosedived in Q2, falling well short of RBNZ and market expectations. The breadth of the contraction sent the Kiwi sliding as traders ramped up bets the central bank will need to deliver more aggressive rate cuts to shore up growth. The NZD was hammered.
Kiwi Economy Crunched
New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% in the June quarter, three times the size of the fall the RBNZ and markets had pencilled in. The drop followed a 0.9% gain in March, leaving activity 0.6% lower over the year on a production basis against expectations for no change.
The production measure showed broad-based weakness, with manufacturing down 3.5% and construction off 1.8%. Services were flat overall, as small gains in wholesale trade and telecommunications were offset by declines in healthcare, business services and recreation. Primary industries also slipped, dragged lower by mining and agriculture.
Expenditure GDP matched the 0.9% fall. Capital investment dropped 1.1% on weakness in residential building and transport equipment, while exports declined 1.2% on reduced dairy and meat shipments. Household spending provided the only offset with a 0.4% lift, though rising imports ensured the overall picture remained negative.
RBNZ May Reintroduce Supersized Cuts
The shock outcome has seen swaps markets rush to price in the risk of the RBNZ delivering a 50 basis point rate cut later this month, with just over 50 basis points of easing now expected before year-end, leaving the cash rate at 2.5%. Even with 250 basis points already delivered this cycle, the economy clearly needs further support, raising the risk the trough lands closer to 2% than 3%.
Source: Bloomberg
New Zealand two-year swaps—closely watched given most mortgages are priced off them—fell 10 basis points after the GDP release to 2.72%, the lowest level since early 2022.
Source: LSEG
NZD/USD Prints Key Bearish Reversal
Source: TradingView
Downside risks for NZD/USD are building after a bearish reversal candle printed from a known resistance level following the Fed’s decision overnight. The 50DMA and .5915 support are next downside levels of note, followed by .5881, the 200DMA and .5800. On the topside, .6000 capped gains on Wednesday, ahead of resistance at .6050 and .6110. Momentum indicators remain in bullish territory but are rolling over, weakening the case for buying dips or breakouts.
AUD/NZD Stages Bullish Breakout
Source: TradingView
AUD/NZD staged a bullish breakout on the soft Kiwi data, punching through resistance at 1.1180. Whether it holds may depend on the detail in Australia’s jobs report later in the session. Following the break, 1.1180 may now act as support, providing a launchpad for longs eyeing 1.1250 resistance. A break there may open the door for a larger run higher with little visible resistance evident until just below 1.1500. On the downside, 1.1152, uptrend support and 1.1033 are the levels to watch. Momentum indicators remain bullish, though RSI (14) has just tipped into overbought territory, reinforcing the need to be selective on entry without overturning the broader positive signals from price action and longer-term moving averages.
