In the webinar, I looked at a wide range of markets from USD-pairs to gold and bitcoin to SPX at the end. The SPX setup has been particularly interesting of late, as the first zone of support from the 2025 forecast came into play and led to a vigorous bounce last week. This was also the setup in my top trade idea for 2025.
The U.S. Dollar started the session with an attempt to bounce. But at this point almost the entirety of the gain has been wiped away and sellers are threatening to make a larger move in the currency. On a bigger picture basis, this brings to light mean reversion scenarios and I looked at that in this webinar through the lens of a few different FX pairs.
U.S. Dollar Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
U.S. Dollar Weekly
The weekly chart is of note here as the range that was active for most of the past two years sits a little-lower on the chart. And the prior bullish trend in the DXY before that came along with an underperforming equity market.
As I shared in the webinar, my expectation and opinion is that the U.S. Dollar will be prone to mean reversion this year as equities continue to spark gains, such as we’ve seen over the past week. To gauge that in the USD, we can look to the prior range resistance from around 106.52-107.35 to look for a move back into that prior range.
U.S. Dollar Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EUR/USD
The Euro makes up a whopping 57.6% of the DXY quote, so if we are going to see DXY mean-revert, it will probably need some help from the Euro.
EUR/USD hit a major support level to start last week at 1.0200, and while last week wasn’t exactly bulls burning the bid, there were higher-lows for every day of last week, and that’s so far led into a breakout extension in early-week trade this week.
As highlighted in the webinar, the prior swing at 1.0344 has so far held the daily lows for the pair, and this would be the level that bulls would need to retain to push bullish continuation scenarios.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
I’ve been highlighting the 1.4500 level in the pair which traded briefly earlier today. But that was followed by an aggressive reversal in the pair and at this point, the daily bar has almost given up the entirety of the days gains.
Nonetheless, the focus is on the same support zone I looked at this weekend, from 1.4280 to 1.4300, which has so far held the daily lows. If or when bears can push below that, a test at 1.4200 would bring some important information.
For longer-term mean reversion it’s the 1.4000 level that bears would need to take-over before the door can open into a big picture range continuation scenarios.
USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
In the webinar, I looked at a wide range of markets from USD-pairs to gold and bitcoin to SPX at the end. The SPX setup has been particularly interesting of late, as the first zone of support from the 2025 forecast came into play and led to a vigorous bounce last week. This was also the setup in my top trade idea for 2025.
Video
The U.S. Dollar started the session with an attempt to bounce. But at this point almost the entirety of the gain has been wiped away and sellers are threatening to make a larger move in the currency. On a bigger picture basis, this brings to light mean reversion scenarios and I looked at that in this webinar through the lens of a few different FX pairs.
U.S. Dollar Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
U.S. Dollar Weekly
The weekly chart is of note here as the range that was active for most of the past two years sits a little-lower on the chart. And the prior bullish trend in the DXY before that came along with an underperforming equity market.
As I shared in the webinar, my expectation and opinion is that the U.S. Dollar will be prone to mean reversion this year as equities continue to spark gains, such as we’ve seen over the past week. To gauge that in the USD, we can look to the prior range resistance from around 106.52-107.35 to look for a move back into that prior range.
U.S. Dollar Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EURUSD AD
EUR/USD
The Euro makes up a whopping 57.6% of the DXY quote, so if we are going to see DXY mean-revert, it will probably need some help from the Euro.
EUR/USD hit a major support level to start last week at 1.0200, and while last week wasn’t exactly bulls burning the bid, there were higher-lows for every day of last week, and that’s so far led into a breakout extension in early-week trade this week.
As highlighted in the webinar, the prior swing at 1.0344 has so far held the daily lows for the pair, and this would be the level that bulls would need to retain to push bullish continuation scenarios.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
I’ve been highlighting the 1.4500 level in the pair which traded briefly earlier today. But that was followed by an aggressive reversal in the pair and at this point, the daily bar has almost given up the entirety of the days gains.
Nonetheless, the focus is on the same support zone I looked at this weekend, from 1.4280 to 1.4300, which has so far held the daily lows. If or when bears can push below that, a test at 1.4200 would bring some important information.
For longer-term mean reversion it’s the 1.4000 level that bears would need to take-over before the door can open into a big picture range continuation scenarios.
USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview 
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview 
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview 
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview 
