Another Day Another Poll
YouGov MRP Poll shows a significant Tory majority
Share this:
Guardian Journalist Owen Jones said today that YouGov MRP Poll shows a significant Tory majority, citing “source”. Journalist Jones also noted that the margin is narrowing, and if continued at the same pace in the next week, would indicate a hung parliament. This follows polls released yesterday and Monday, which my colleague Ken concisely boiled down yesterday. Markets seem to be ignoring the part about the hung parliament, and instead are focusing on the significant Tory lead. Combine that with a little “risk on” in stocks, and a weak JPY, and we have the makings of a potential breakout in GBP/JPY.
GBP/JPY put in lows on August 12th and September 2nd, creating a double bottom. Price traded higher since then and halted between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs on March 13th to the lows on August 12th near 140.38 and the horizontal resistance near 141.00 forming a potential flag/pennant formation. Price has broken through the 141.00 level and closed today at its highest level since May near 141.50. If GBP/JPY breaks above 141.70, it will have broken above the flag and we can start looking at a potential target near 150.00.
Source: Tradingview, City Index
On a 240-minute chart, it is easy to see the flag range that GBP/JPY has been in since mid-October, however Monday and today have been extremely strong days. Price gapped open on Monday at 139.70 from a close of 139.57 on Friday. Since the opening on Monday, price seems to be forming a possible AB=CD harmonic formation, where the length of wave AB equals the length of wave CD. That would bring price to the top of the channel. If GBP/JPY breaks through this resistance zone, it may easily squeeze through the top of the flag near 141.70 (see daily).
Source: Tradingview, City Index
The focus on this pair over the next few weeks will be twofold. First, the release of headlines regarding the upcoming elections and new polls will drive this pair as that seems to be the only thing GBP traders are watching into December 12th. Secondly, Yen traders are focusing on the US-China trade war. If the headlines are positive, or if a deal gets signed, USD/JPY should trade higher with risk, which should bring GBP/JPY higher along with it.
Guardian Journalist Owen Jones said today that YouGov MRP Poll shows a significant Tory majority, citing “source”. Journalist Jones also noted that the margin is narrowing, and if continued at the same pace in the next week, would indicate a hung parliament. This follows polls released yesterday and Monday, which my colleague Ken concisely boiled down yesterday. Markets seem to be ignoring the part about the hung parliament, and instead are focusing on the significant Tory lead. Combine that with a little “risk on” in stocks, and a weak JPY, and we have the makings of a potential breakout in GBP/JPY.
GBP/JPY put in lows on August 12th and September 2nd, creating a double bottom. Price traded higher since then and halted between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs on March 13th to the lows on August 12th near 140.38 and the horizontal resistance near 141.00 forming a potential flag/pennant formation. Price has broken through the 141.00 level and closed today at its highest level since May near 141.50. If GBP/JPY breaks above 141.70, it will have broken above the flag and we can start looking at a potential target near 150.00.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
On a 240-minute chart, it is easy to see the flag range that GBP/JPY has been in since mid-October, however Monday and today have been extremely strong days. Price gapped open on Monday at 139.70 from a close of 139.57 on Friday. Since the opening on Monday, price seems to be forming a possible AB=CD harmonic formation, where the length of wave AB equals the length of wave CD. That would bring price to the top of the channel. If GBP/JPY breaks through this resistance zone, it may easily squeeze through the top of the flag near 141.70 (see daily).
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
The focus on this pair over the next few weeks will be twofold. First, the release of headlines regarding the upcoming elections and new polls will drive this pair as that seems to be the only thing GBP traders are watching into December 12th. Secondly, Yen traders are focusing on the US-China trade war. If the headlines are positive, or if a deal gets signed, USD/JPY should trade higher with risk, which should bring GBP/JPY higher along with it.
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Nears Critical Yearly Support 9 23 2026
Euro has fallen seven of the past nine sessions, with stretched momentum raising the stakes as EUR/USD closes in on a major inflection zone.
GBP/USD forecast: US dollar surges as bonds implode
The US dollar continued to press higher deep into the European session, supported by the slump in the bond markets as yields broke out across the curve. Following the recent hawkish Fed rate hike, yield spreads between the US and the rest of the world has continually increased, and that motion continued today, helped in part by some forecast-beating US macro data and hawkish Fed commentary.
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Breakdown Threatens Deeper Correction 9 23 2026
AUD/USD remains under pressure after breaking key trend support, with the latest decline putting the focus on the next major downside pivot.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.