Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Uptrend Faces Its First Real Test
USD/CAD is testing its first meaningful support since breaking to fresh yearly highs, with the next move likely to shape the July outlook.
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Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CAD has rallied more than 5% from the May lows, reaching its highest levels in over a year.
- The pair is testing a pivotal support zone and while the broader uptrend remains intact, a reaction here could determine whether the rally resumes or a larger correction develops.
- U.S. ISM data and Canada's employment report next week could provide the catalyst for the next directional move.
- Resistance 1.4248, 1.4292, 1.4335 (key)– Support 1.4138/51, 1.4068, 1.3967/83 (key)
USD/CAD enters July at an important technical crossroads after a powerful seven-week advance carried the pair to its highest levels in more than a year. A weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report sparked profit-taking late in the week, bringing the pair back into its first meaningful support zone since the breakout. The reaction here could determine whether the broader uptrend quickly resumes or if a larger correction begins to unfold into the start of Q3. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was testing pivotal resistance at the yearly range high and from a trading standpoint, “losses should be limited to the yearly moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3983 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/CAD broke higher later that week with the advance extending more than 5.1% off the May low to trade at the highest levels in over a year. The bulls have rallied seven-of-the-past-eight weeks with price threatening to snap a four-week winning streak ahead of the extended holiday weekend.
The rally exhausted just ahead of uptrend resistance into the start of the month with the pullback testing initial support this week at the 50% retracement of the 2025 decline and the February swing low at 1.4138/51. The focus is on a reaction off this mark in the weeks ahead with the monthly opening-range taking shape just above.
A break below this pivot zone would expose the 23.6% retracement of the January advance at 1.4068. Note that this level converges on the median line over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place and threaten a larger correction within the yearly uptrend. Broader bullish invalidation rests at 1.3867/83- a region defined by the March high, the 2022 swing high, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline.
A break of the highs (1.4248) exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 1.4292 and the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.4335. Note that the upper parallel converges overhead over the next few weeks and both levels represent areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 2025 & 2016 close highs near 1.4529/38.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has extended the May rally to fresh yearly highs and while the outlook remains constructive, the risk for further exhaustion into the start of the month mounts IF price breaks below this key pivot zone. The July opening-range is now taking shape above and a breakout may offer guidance in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.4068 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the June highs needed to mark uptrend resumption. Look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a rally towards the upper parallel / 1.4335 IF reached.
Keep in mind we are heading into a long holiday-weekend with U.S. ISM and Canada employment data on tap next week. The USD/CAD uptrend is maturing here, and we will want to stay nimble early in the month. Watch the weekly closes for guidance. I will publish an updated Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook next week once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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