Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Drops 4%—Uptrend Faces First Major Test

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• AUD/USD has fallen more than 4% from the yearly highs after breaking below key trend support.
• Price is now approaching a major support zone that could determine the fate of the broader uptrend- risk for inflection.
• A break below support would signal a deeper correction is underway while a hold could stabilize the recent selloff / register a meaningful low.
• Event risk on tap: RBA & FOMC interest rate decisions next week
• Resistance 7116 (key), 7208/13, 7295- Support 6943/56 (key), 6877/80, 6764

AUD/USD remains under pressure after a sharp reversal from the yearly highs, with the decline now approaching a major support confluence that could prove pivotal for the broader trend. The selloff has driven momentum to its weakest levels in months and brings the multi-month uptrend into focus as price nears a critical technical threshold. The reaction here could offer important clues on whether the recent weakness evolves into a larger correction or marks the beginning of a stabilization phase. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was, “testing confluent uptrend support this week and the focus is on a reaction off the median line in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7213 IF Aussie is heading for a larger pullback here with a close below 7100 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction.” Aussie briefly registered an intraweek high at 7201 the following week before reversing sharply lower with a break below the median-line extending more than 4% off the yearly high. Although momentum has reached the lowest levels since November, weekly RSI remains just above 50- and the pressure is on as price approaches key technical hurdles.

A major support confluence rests just lower at 6943/56- a region defined by the 2024 swing high and the 23.6% retracement of the 2025 advance. Note that the lower parallel of the November pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks. Look for a large reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below needed invalidate the multi-month uptrend and threaten a deeper pullback for Aussie. Subsequent support objectives rest at the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 6877/80 and the 52-week moving average, currently near 6763.

Weekly resistance is eyed at the February high close at 7116- strength beyond this level would suggest a more significant low is in place with a breach / close above 7208/14 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance eyed at the yearly / 2019 highs at 7278/95.

 

Bottom line: AUD/USD has plunged to the lowest levels in nearly nine-weeks with price now approaching confluent uptrend support. Watch the weekly close with regards to the 70-handle tomorrow for guidance. Risk for price inflection in the days ahead with the immediate short bias is vulnerable while above the 2024 high. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the 6950s- rallies would need to be limited to 7116 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below parallel support needed to fuel the next leg lower.

Keep in mind the RBA & FOMC rate decisions are on tap next week. While both central banks are widely expected to leave rate unchanged, traders will be closely examining policy remarks from newly minted Chair Kevin Warsh amid ongoing concerns regarding the inflationary outlook. CPI & PPI data this week highlighted continued upward pressure on prices and with the labor markets seemingly on stable footing, the committee may be forced to adjust policy in the months ahead. As of now, Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 70% probability the central bank will need to hike at least 25 basis points before the end of the year. Traders will also be looking to possible changes in Fed communications as we await the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. I will publish an updated Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex