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The trading week is getting underway and, for now, gold has struggled to maintain the strength that characterized its performance in previous weeks. Average price action over the last two sessions shows a decline of roughly 1.5%, reflecting a loss of momentum that has started to highlight a more neutral market environment.
The last two trading sessions have been particularly important for gold's price action in the short term. XAU/USD has gained more than 3.7% during this period, once again highlighting a meaningful bullish bias around the precious metal.
The week ends with GBP/USD down around -0.6%, reflecting a clear loss of short-term momentum in the pound sterling. At the same time, the US dollar is showing renewed stability and continues to hold a stronger demand bias against its main rivals.
EUR/USD & Nasdaq Outlook: Price action at the 1.18 level on EUR/USD and 29,000 on the Nasdaq is defining the next major move, as optimism around a potential US-Iran resolution builds, while inflation risks continue to rise.
During the current session, USD/CAD has posted a gain of around 0.38%, favoring the US dollar. The buying pressure is mainly driven by expectations surrounding tomorrow’s NFP release, as well as ongoing dynamics supporting the dollar amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
During today’s session, USD/CAD has posted a consistent gain of more than 0.5%, with price action favoring the U.S. dollar. This move has begun to establish a new short-term bullish bias within the pair’s average price movements.
EUR/USD is maintaining solid short-term strength and, over the past three trading sessions, has posted gains of more than 1.00%, reflecting a renewed bullish bias in recent price action.
As the week approaches its close, USD/JPY is extending a four-session winning streak in favor of the U.S. dollar, posting gains of more than 1% in the short term.
Dow Jones Forecast: Following the strong rebound from the 2020 lows, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has continued to extend within a contracting diagonal structure, approaching a potential inflection point ahead of a notable retracement. This setup aligns with rising haven demand and increasing geopolitical frictions. The 50,000 level remains pivotal for trend continuation into Q1 2026.
GBP/USD gives back the rebound from the weekly low (1.3334) as the ISM Services index climbs to 52.0 in August from 50.1 the month prior.
As the week comes to a close, EUR/USD has posted a modest 0.2% gain during the latest session, with a noticeable stabilization in short-term price movements.
With the monthly ADP payrolls figures delivering a solid set of data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, I take a closer look to see if the ADP can help pick the direction of NFP.
I doubt we’ll be seeing too much weakness in December’s NFP figures later today, and that could prompt another bid for the USD. But with Trump likely to revive his disdain for a strong dollar, perhaps a pullback is not too far away.
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