NFP

EUR/USD is trading between resistance near 1.0925 and support around 1.0840 ahead of the key US jobs report...

It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.

The USD/CAD outlook is going to be influenced by jobs reports from both the US and Canada due out later today.

All eyes will turn to the US jobs report on Friday, as the market refocuses on Fed policy after the Fitch downgrade of US credit rating caused a risk off response in the markets, which sent the dollar and long-dated bond yields surging higher. The US dollar, gold and EUR/USD outlook could be impacted if we see a jobs report that deviates significantly from expectations.

The AUD/USD outlook has been dealt a double or even triple whammy, as risk appetite turned sharply negative, US data improved further and concerns over China lingered. Will we now see another strong US non-farm payrolls report and further dollar strength? It looks that way, as we will explain in this NFP preview article.

The RBA meet on Tuesday in what could be Governor Lowe’s final meeting, so will he go out with a 25bp bang of fade away with a pause? Employment data for the US includes Nonfarm payrolls, ADP and claims data, and traders also have ISM manufacturing and services reports to look forward to.

The Nasdaq 100 is at 14-month highs after the headline NFP reading beat expectations for the 15th straight month, coming in at 339K vs. just 193K eyed

The next major hurdle for the US dollar and the economy will be Friday’s NFP reading, which is expected to show nearly 200K net new jobs and wages to rise at 0.3% m/m

All the attention is going to be on the US jobs report.

We wrap off the week with today’s NFP report at 13:30 GMT, but first we’ll see if bulls can retain control of the FTSE 100 following yesterday’s breakout.

Will this finally be the reading that shows signals the tight labor market is easing?

Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?

Markets are focusing on the Average Hourly Earnings data for December, which was lower than expected. But will the Fed see it as dovish as the markets?

Another soft inflation print for Europe could weigh on the euro ahead of today’s NFP report, for which we have USD/CAD and gold in focus for.

Good news from the jobs front has sent the US Dollar higher in anticipation of a more hawkish Fed. USD/JPY has followed right along with it.

Thankfully, some of the early data suggests that the US consumer remained healthy as of December, and that optimism is keeping expectations for the labor market elevated as well.

Chances are that Powell and gang stick to the plan and only hike 50bps. However, that’s not to say that they can’t increase rates later if they deem it necessary.