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US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Fight to Hold Critical Support Ahead of NFP

DXY bulls are attempting to defend a pivotal technical threshold, with the next reaction likely to determine whether the broader recovery survives.

Michael Boutros
Michael Boutros

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US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Fight to Hold Critical Support Ahead of NFP 11 5 2026

US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Multi-Timeframe Analysis

The U.S. dollar outlook turns to payrolls after the DXY recovered a sharp pullback into the midterm elections and held its yearly uptrend. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the U.S. dollar index across monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts, and the data releases lined up next. Nonfarm payrolls are the immediate test for the U.S. dollar, following an ADP private payrolls report that came in hotter than expected. Markets are still largely pricing a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, so a stronger or weaker labor market reading feeds directly into that expectation. The DXY remains inside its broader yearly uptrend, and daily and weekly closes around a key support zone show if the pullback deepens. After payrolls, the next major catalyst for the U.S. dollar is the U.S. CPI inflation update.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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