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Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Support Reversal Sets Up Breakout Test Ahead of NFP

Euro bulls are attempting to build on the rebound from recent lows, but pivotal resistance still stands in the way of a larger EUR/USD recovery.

Michael Boutros
Michael Boutros

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Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Support Reversal Sets Up Breakout Test Ahead of NFP 11 4 2026

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis

EUR/USD technical analysis shows the euro rebounding off long-term support as the U.S. dollar weakens after the U.S. midterm election results. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through EUR/USD on the monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts and maps the support and resistance zones framing the euro dollar rally. EUR/USD support rests on a 38.2% retracement of the entire 2022 advance, prior weekly closing pivots and a 20-pip zone that held through October, while the 2023 swing high marks the first resistance. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the next major event risk for the U.S. dollar, where a weaker print may weigh further on the greenback. Eurozone inflation data showed headline inflation ticking up to 4% while core held at 2.5%, keeping inflation concerns alive. Markets are pricing an 81% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, putting the jobs data at the center of the Fed outlook.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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