British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Recovery Faces First Major Test

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• GBP/USD has rebounded after a sharp selloff from the monthly highs.
• The recovery is now approaching a major resistance zone near the yearly open- inflection risk rises.
• A sustained move higher would support resumption of the broader uptrend while failure would keep focus on downside risks within the broader correction.
• Resistance 1.3474, 1.3522 (key), 1.3648/85- Support ~1.33, 1.3266 (key), 1.3194

GBP/USD is attempting to recover after a sharp pullback from the monthly highs, with price now approaching the first major resistance zone since the decline began. The rebound has stabilized near-term momentum, but the broader outlook remains vulnerable while the pair trades below key resistance. The focus now shifts to whether buyers can sustain the recovery or if the rally stalls into another leg lower within the broader correction. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart heading into June.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that a four-week rally had taken GBP/USD into, “technical resistance for a third consecutive week. The focus heading into May is on a breakout of this near-term range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch..” The range broke lower two-weeks later with Sterling plunging 2.6% off the monthly high to register an intraweek low at 1.3302 before rebounding.

The focus is on this near-term recovery with initial resistance eyed at the yearly open at 1.3474 backed closely by the 61.8% retracement of the monthly decline at 1.3522. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and fuel a test towards key resistance at 1.3648/85- a region defined by the 2025 & 2026 high-week closes (HWC). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Look for initial support near the 1.33-handle backed closely by the 78.6% retracement of the March advance at 1.3266 and 1.3194- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the yearly low-week close (LWC). Losses below this threshold would mark a break of the yearly opening range and threaten a steeper decline with the next technical consideration seen at the 2023 high-week close (HWC) and the November close low at 1.3092/96.

 

Bottom line: The Sterling recovery has stretched into pivotal resistance and marks the first test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, the losses would need to be limited to 1.3266 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3522 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the June open and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex