Nasdaq 100 Analysis: The Index Reclaims the 25,000 Level

Despite starting the week with a consistent neutral tone, today’s session saw the Nasdaq post gains of more than 1% in the short term. The move was mainly driven by the strong performance of its key components and by the reduced relative attractiveness of substitute assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds. These factors have acted as relevant catalysts for renewed buying pressure that is beginning to consolidate.

If this renewed confidence persists, it could contribute to more sustained buying pressure in the coming sessions.

Confidence Attempts to Return to the Market

The outlook for Nasdaq has turned more positive, largely due to the performance of its main components, which are posting notable gains in the current session. Nvidia is up 2.48%, Apple advances 0.62%, Microsoft gains 1.12%, Amazon leads with 2.61%, and Google also posts a moderate increase of 0.5%.

This behavior suggests that confidence has returned to the index’s leading components, a relevant factor considering these five stocks account for more than 40% of the Nasdaq’s weighting.

Source: Slickcharts

The recent momentum is partly explained by an announcement involving Nvidia, which reported a strategic agreement with Meta Platforms to supply millions of artificial intelligence chips for large-scale data centers. This development has renewed confidence not only in Nvidia’s stock but also in broader technology sector prospects, indirectly benefiting other major components of the index.

The event is significant because part of the recent pullback in technology stocks was linked to uncertainty surrounding AI investment. This new announcement provides greater clarity regarding the continuation and consolidation of strategic projects within the industry, which has been interpreted as a positive signal by the market. If this renewed sentiment holds, it could continue to support stronger buying pressure in Nasdaq in the coming sessions.

 

Bonds begin to lose appeal

In addition to the strength in technology stocks, another relevant factor has been the reduced attractiveness of the fixed-income market. When bond yields decline, equities may regain relative appeal, as capital flows tend to seek alternative exposure in indices such as the Nasdaq.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have shown a consistent decline, now hovering slightly above the 4.00% level, well below the recent high near 4.3%. This drop in yields reduces the relative appeal of fixed income and may encourage rotation into higher-risk assets.

Source: TradingEconomics

If this weakness in bond yields persists, it could continue to narrow the relative advantage of fixed income over equities. In that scenario, part of the capital flows may keep rotating toward equity indices such as the Nasdaq, indirectly supporting more consistent buying pressure in upcoming sessions.

 

Nasdaq Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The Sideways Range Continues to Dominate: Despite the recent recovery, the Nasdaq remains within a broad sideways range, bounded by resistance near 26,000 points and support around 24,000 points. As long as price action remains within this structure, it will be difficult to establish a more clearly defined directional trend.
   
• RSI: The RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level, indicating that short-term buying and selling momentum is balanced. This suggests an ongoing indecision phase unless a more decisive move emerges.
   
• MACD: A similar pattern is visible in the MACD, where the histogram fluctuates around the zero line, signaling a lack of clear direction in short-term moving averages. This reinforces the dominant neutral bias in recent index behavior.
   

Key Levels:

• 26,000 points – Key resistance: A level aligned with the Nasdaq’s historical highs and representing the main upside barrier. A sustained breakout above this area could reactivate a stronger bullish bias and open the door to a new upward trend in the coming weeks.
   

• 24,600 points – Near-term barrier: A neutrality zone aligned with recent lows. Price action hovering near this level could prolong the current sideways range.
   
• 24,100 points – Key support: A level corresponding to recent weekly lows and the main downside area to monitor. A pullback toward this zone could reactivate weakness and open space for renewed selling pressure, potentially triggering a more meaningful short-term downtrend.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25