Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises to record highs after stronger than forecast NFP

US futures

Dow futures 0.68% at 44768

S&P futures 0.7% at 6270

Nasdaq futures 0.96% at 22850

In Europe

FTSE 0.5% at 8815

DAX 0.64% at 23929

• US stocks rise to record highs after solid jobs data
• NFP payrolls rise to 147k vs 110k forecast
• Unemployment falls to 4.1%
• Oil slips with trade tariffs in focus

NFP beat forecasts with 147k jobs added vs 110k forecast

US stocks have risen to a record high after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll results, which have highlighted the resilience of the US labour market amid concerns over Trump's tariff policies.

The nonfarm payroll report showed that 147,000 jobs were created in June after an upwardly revised 144,000 in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% down from 4.2% and defying expectations, which will rise to 4.3%

Lead indicators had pointed to some signs of weakness appearing in the US jobs market, but this report hasn't shown that brining a relief rally. In fact, coming in much better than expected, the figures support the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold in the July meeting. Traders have now priced out an interest rate cut in July and have the odds of a 25 basis point cut in September at 72%

The market is pricing in 50 basis points worth of cuts this year, down from 65 basis points ahead of the data release.

The markets will be keeping an eye on any trade deal updates after the Vietnam trade agreement announcement yesterday; however, trade deals with major trading partners such as Japan and the EU have still not been finalised.

Separately, the US House of Representatives has advanced Trump's massive tax cut and spending bill towards a final vote as it appears to overcome internal party divisions. The legislation is expected to add approximately $ 3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over the next decade.

Corporate news

Apple is rising after sales of iPhones in China jumped 8% YoY in the three months to the end of June. This marked the first time that Apple recorded growth in China since 2023.

TripAdvisor jumped 7% after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard took a 9% stake.

Crypto stocks are also under the spotlight. Bitcoin rises to 110k, just shy of the 11.9k record peak.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 has risen to a fresh record high above 22,750. The RSI is tipping into overbought territory, so buyers should be cautious. Buyers will look to extend gains towards 23,000 as the next logical level. Support can be seen at 22,500, the upper band of the rising channel, and the round number. Below here, 22,245, the February record high comes into focus.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising following the stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll report, which has seen the market price out July rate cut expectations. Worries over trade tariffs could limit the upside.

The EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger U.S. dollar and despite an upward revision to eurozone PMI data. The latest figures from S&P Global showed that the eurozone services PMI rose to 50.5 in June, up from 49.7 in May, returning to modest growth. The composite PMI also edged higher to 50.6 in June, up from 50.2, marking a three-month high.

GBP/USD is edging higher after yesterday's steep declines after Prime Minister Kier Starmer supported Rachel Reeves in her job as chancellor. Meanwhile, UK service sector activity grew at its fastest pace since August, the services PMI rose to 52.8 in June, up from 50.9 in May.

Oil falls on tariff worries

Oil prices are slipping after three days of gains as investors become nervous about the possibility of US tariffs being reinstated at a time when supply is expected to get a further boost from major producers.

Tariff uncertainty is looming over the market ahead of the July 9 deadline, with several major trading partners yet to finalise a deal. High tariffs could slow economic growth, potentially harming the outlook for oil demand.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day at the policy meeting this weekend.

Adding to the headwinds, data from China, the world's largest oil importer, showed that its service sector grew at a rate of 9% in nine months in June..