S&P 500 Hits Record Despite Nvidia Miss & Tariff Jitters

Market Wrap: S&P 500 Hits Record as Nvidia Falls Short

• S&P 500 closed at a record high, gaining 0.24% to 6,481.40, surpassing its previous peak.
• The Dow Jones rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq added 0.21%.

Nvidia Earnings: Solid Numbers, Cautious Outlook

• Q2 EPS: $1.05 vs. expected $1.00
• Revenue: $46.74B vs. $45.51B expected
• Q3 Forecast: $54B vs. $53B expected
• Shares dropped 3.2% after hours, largely due to exclusion of China sales from guidance.

Key Takeaways:

• Nvidia assumed no China shipments despite having licenses for H20 chips.
• Geopolitical risks flagged as a key uncertainty.
• Company announced a $60B stock buyback.
• Cited potential legal and cost implications if the US government enforces a 15% revenue share on licensed H20 chip sales—no regulation has been published yet.

Broader Earnings Movers

• MongoDB soared +38% after raising its profit forecast.
• J.M. Smucker dropped −4.4% on weaker results.

Global Market Overview

Asia

• Regional markets turned cautious, chipmakers dragged lower by Nvidia’s decline.
• Bank of Korea held rates steady.
• The dollar softened on ongoing Fed rate cut speculation.

Geopolitics & Trade

Norway Divests from Caterpillar

• Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is divesting its $2.1B stake in Caterpillar over ethical concerns tied to Palestinian home demolitions.
• The decision follows broader scrutiny and divestment from over 20 Israeli companies this year.

US Trade & Sanctions

• Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods are now in effect.
• White House trade advisor Navarro: India can receive a 25% tariff reduction if it stops purchasing Russian oil.
• Majority of Americans now support sanctioning Russia’s trading partners, per a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• ExxonMobil reportedly in talks with Russia’s state energy firm to resume operations post-2022 withdrawal.

Corporate & Tech Headlines

• Apple to unveil iPhone 17 on September 9.
• Google to end sideloading support on Android devices.

European Risk Spotlight

France

• Political instability weighs on French financials.
• Concerns over PM François Bayrou’s minority government prompt fears of collapse.
• 63% of French citizens support dissolving parliament, per an Ifop poll.
• Market impact:
  • Potential increase in French bond spreads
  • Risk to bank capital costs and credit recovery
  • Fears the corporate tax surcharge cut could be scrapped, reducing bank profits by ~3%

EU Auto Emissions Target

• Industry leaders warn that the 2035 zero-emission goal for vehicles is no longer realistic.

EU OPEN: DAX 4H Technical Analysis

Based on the most recent 4H chart of the Germany 40 (DAX), the market remains confined within a broader ascending wedge formation, marked by higher lows and a relatively flat upper resistance zone near 24,650. After the recent failed breakout attempt above 24,400, the index has shown signs of exhaustion, slipping below short-term moving averages (20 EMA, 50 EMA and 100 EMA), although the longer-term trend support from the 200 EMA still holds marginally and has been tested for the last 2 days.

The RSI currently hovers around 37, indicating weakening momentum, while the Stochastic RSI is moving upwards and is around the 50 mark currently. If the trend continues to be weak, then this might suggest a potential continuation of bearish pressure unless a reversal kicks in soon. The chart's structure suggests that bulls remain technically in control as long as the rising wedge’s lower boundary holds — currently just above the 23,500 level — but the repeated failures to break above 24,550 raise caution. A breakdown below the wedge support could signal a larger trend shift.

Economic Data – Today

Time	Indicator	Forecast	Previous
14:30	🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims	231K	235K
16:00	🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (MoM, Jul)	-0.4%	-0.8%