
USD/CHF forecast: Bullish wedge keeps upside in focus ahead of payrolls
A bullish wedge keeps upside in focus, but markets may be more sensitive to weak US labour market data than another upside payrolls surprise.
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A bullish wedge keeps upside in focus, but markets may be more sensitive to weak US labour market data than another upside payrolls surprise.

A shock Swiss CPI print has markets dusting off negative-rate scenarios for the SNB, just as widening U.S.–Swiss yield spreads propel USD/CHF higher.
Over the last two trading sessions, USD/CHF has shown a variation of just 0.4%, reflecting a clear neutral bias after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision.
USD/CHF may face increased volatility as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to deliver another 25bp rate-cut.
Deflation, a surging franc, and limited meeting windows all point to the SNB potentially doing more than markets expect this week—could a return to negative rates be the shock that jolts USD/CHF from recent lows?
Trades want to sell the USD, but that it causing a headache for the SNB who want a lower Swiss franc. And Some already estimate that the central bank is active in the FX market to defend the USD/CHF at 0.84. And that puts the SNB interest meeting, US GDP, PMI, PCE reports in focus, alongside the slew Fed members hitting the wires.
Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.
For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.
It is a monster week ahead for traders with a key focus on central banks, with BOJ, Fed, BOE and RBA meetings on the menu.
We have arguably seen the biggest central bank surprise of the week, with the Fed’s dovish pivot. But that may also influence the tone of the SNB, BOE and ECB at their meetings today – even if only to a degree.
Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.
The BOE and SNB are expected to hike by 25bp today. But a 50bp hike may not be out of the question, which puts GBP/USD and USD/CHF firmly onto trader's radars today.
With the FOMC meeting in the rear view mirror, the focus now shifts to Europe where the UK and SNB announce their interest rate decisions.
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