USD Majors, Gold, Bitcoin, Fed Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, August 31 at 8:30am ET
• Major week of event risk with Core PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole on tap
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

US Dollar Index Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: The U.S. Dollar Index is testing confluent support at the August high-day close and May low at 98.68/69. Note that the lower parallel of the July pitchfork rests just lower and the immediate short-bias is vulnerable while above. A break / daily close below this slope is needed to mark downtrend resumption with key support objectives eyed at the yearly open at 98.24 and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 97.94. Both areas represent zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Initial resistance is eyed at with the 200-day moving average near ~98.17 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement / January high at 99.41/49. This level converges on the median-line this week and a breach / daily close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place, and a larger recovery is underway within the July downtrend. Key resistance / broader bearish invalidation remains with the 2024 low / low close at 100.16/35.

Bottom line: The Dollar Index rebounded off confluent downtrend support, and the focus is on this near-term recovery. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the lower parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Event risk picks up this week, beginning with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expected announcement on Iran sanctions today, which could generate volatility through oil prices and broader risk sentiment. The focus then shifts to Wednesday’s Core PCE report—the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation—with the latest reading still elevated at 3.3% y/y. The marquee event, however, comes Friday when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote address at Jackson Hole. With markets closely assessing the path of monetary policy into year-end, any signal on the Fed’s tolerance for persistent inflation or the timing of further tightening could drive a meaningful repricing in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.

           

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: Gold has broken out of the yearly downtrend with the rally extending more than 18.7% off the yearly low today. XAU/USD is trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the August low with initial resistance now in view near the May high-day close (HDC) at 4716. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the March decline and the April high close at 4841/55. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone into the close of the week- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support now rests at 4506/33- a region defined by 38.2% retracement of the February decline, the 200-day moving average, the 61.8% retracement of the April decline, and the 2025 high-day close (HDC). Ultimately, a break below the 4450 would be needed suggest a more significant near-term high is in place, and a larger correction is underway back towards the yearly open at 4319.

Bottom line: Gold is attempting to mark a fourth-consecutive weekly advance with the rally now approaching uptrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4506 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a daily close above 4715 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. With a major week of event risk on tap- expect some volatility here in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Notes: Bitcoin has broken out of the May downtrend with the crypto-rally now extending more than 38.5% off the yearly lows. The rally is now testing the February trendline with lateral resistance eyed just higher at the 200% extension of the June rally and the May high-day close (HDC) at 80,589-81,447. Key resistance stands with the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 83,712-84,102- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support now rests at the 2025 low / low close at 74,434-76,159 with near-term bullish invalidation now raise dot he February low-day close (LDC) / low-week close (LWC) at 70,283/531. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the recent breakout and suggest a more significant reversal is underway.

Bottom line: The Bitcoin breakout is now approaching initial resistance at multi-month highs. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 74434 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 81,447 needed to fuel the next leg higher in BTC/USD.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex