AUD/USD, NZD/USD: Antipodeans in orbit as China proxies pop

• Kiwi at fresh YTD highs after clearing major resistance
• Aussie nearing breakout, uptrend capping for now
• Strong link to China proxies: HSI, copper, silver
• Sentiment towards U.S. trade policy remains key driver

Summary

It’s been another big session of buying across the antipodean currencies in Asia, continuing the pattern seen in recent days. The Kiwi continues to outperform, sending NZD/USD to fresh YTD highs. The Aussie is not far behind, sitting just beneath key resistance. Zooming in, both pairs are showing strong linkages to cyclical plays tied to China, suggesting sentiment towards U.S. tariff policy remains a key driver near-term.

AUD, NZD Enjoy Asia Buying Spree

You can see the monotonous bid in AUD/USD and NZD/USD on the five-minute tick chart below, with the start of the Asian session indicated by the vertical dashed lines. Often, buying in both pairs has kicked in as larger markets across the region come online, including Japan and China. The Kiwi, in particular, has attracted strong demand in recent sessions.

Source: TradingView

It’s also notable that the bid in both pairs occurred alongside strong countertrend bounces in Chinese and China-linked markets. The correlation analysis below confirms the close alignment both the Aussie and Kiwi have had with Hang Seng futures (red), Hang Seng Tech futures (yellow), COMEX copper futures (blue) and the spot silver price (black) over the past five days.

Source: TradingView

Sure, the timeframe is limited and carries the usual caveats—but the relationship between the antipodean currencies and these markets has been close to perfect. That’s not easily dismissed as coincidence.

AUD/USD Nears Key Upside Test

Source: TradingView

AUD/USD is now threatening to break to fresh YTD highs, closing in on key uptrend resistance. It’s found around .6415 today, with minor horizontal resistance located just ahead of it at .6391.

Momentum indicators are swinging bullish, with RSI (14) trending higher but not yet overbought. MACD is offering a more nuanced picture—crossing the signal line from below, but still below zero. The broader message: upside momentum is building.

If AUD/USD breaks and holds above the uptrend, .6450, the 200-day moving average, and .6550 are levels to watch. On the downside, a reversal from current levels would bring the 50-day moving average into play.

NZD/USD Clears 200DMA

Source: TradingView

NZD/USD has already gone one better than the Aussie, hitting YTD highs on Monday after breaking and closing above uptrend resistance established in late 2024. The Kiwi has extended the move today, climbing above the 200-day moving average before stalling at the November 2024 swing high of .5929. That’s the first topside level to watch, with a break putting .6053 on the radar for bulls. Having already cleared them, the 200-day moving average and uptrend may now attract buyers on any pullback.

Both RSI (14) and MACD sit in positive territory and are trending higher, favouring a bullish bias. That suggests buying dips over selling rips may be the more fruitful approach for now.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty