Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of February High
AUD/USD pulls back ahead of the February high (0.6409) to carve a series of lower highs and lows.
Share this:
Australia Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD pulls back ahead of the February high (0.6409) to carve a series of lower highs and lows, but the exchange rate may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6266) should it hold above the monthly low (0.6187).
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of February High
Keep in mind, AUD/USD no longer trades within the ascending channel from earlier this year following the six-day selloff in February, and the decline from the monthly high (0.6364) may persist as data prints coming out of China, Australia’s largest trading partner, cast a weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
The update to China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.7% contraction in February to mark the first negative print since January 2024, and the threat of a US-China trade war may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement lower interest rates as ‘private domestic demand is recovering a little more slowly than earlier expected.’
In turn, the Australian Dollar may face headwinds ahead of the next RBA meeting on April 1 as the central bank starts to unwind its restrictive policy, but Governor Michele Bullock and Co. may carry out a gradual approach in lowering interest rates as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority.’
With that said, AUD/USD may track the February range should it continue to hold above the monthly low (0.6187), but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the February low (0.6088) as it no longer trades within the ascending channel from earlier this year.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD extends the decline from the monthly high (0.63640) to carve a series of lower highs and lows, and a break/close below the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone may push the exchange rate towards the monthly low (0.6187).
- A break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region opens up the February low (0.6088), but AUD/USD may face range bound conditions should it track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6266).
- Need a move back above 0.6318 (November 2023 low) to bring the monthly high (0.63640) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the February high (0.6409).
Additional Market Outlooks
Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Response to Positive Slope in 50-Day SMA
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Weakness Pushes RSI Towards Oversold Zone
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Holds Above Channel Resistance
EUR/USD Rally Persist Even as ECB Pursues Less Restrictive Policy
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/CAD shooting star puts September surge on notice
USD/CAD has printed a clear bearish reversal pattern after an extraordinary September surge, but confirmation may depend heavily on how US Treasury yields react to Friday’s payrolls report.
USD/CHF Reverses as Swiss Franc Surges amid Bond Carnage
USD/CHF reverses from channel resistance as bond volatility surges and broad Swiss franc strength points to a possible carry-trade unwind.
US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Meet Resistance at Yearly Highs 10 1 2026
The U.S. Dollar has held firm despite fading Fed hike bets, but Friday’s payrolls could test the rally’s staying power.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.