Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Reversal Tests Key Uptrend Support

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• AUD/USD has reversed more than 1.7% from the September high with the decline now testing multi-week uptrend support
• Daily momentum has fallen below neutral territory for the first time since July, leaving bulls increasingly vulnerable.
• A break lower would strengthen the case for a deeper correction, while a recovery through near-term resistance would ease immediate downside pressure.
• Tomorrow’s FOMC decision represents the key catalyst, with the updated projections, dot plot, and Chair Warsh’s press conference in focus.
• Resistance 7167/72, 7208/14 (key), 7258- Support 7120, 7100 (key), 7080

AUD/USD has come under renewed pressure after the multi-month rally stalled at fresh highs earlier this month. The recent reversal has weakened the near-term momentum profile, but the broader advance remains intact for now as Aussie reaches an important inflection zone. With the Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow, the next reaction could offer critical guidance on whether the pullback begins to stabilize or extends into a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD momentum had reached seven-month highs and that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 7200- losses would need to be limited to 7080 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.” The advance extended more than 5.4% off the June low with Aussie briefly registering an intraday high at 7238 (close high registered at 7218) before reversing sharply.

Price is now poised to mark a second weekly decline with a drop of more than 1.7% off the monthly high now testing confluent support at the lower parallel of the late-June uptrend, the September opening range low, and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline near 7120. The immediate focus is on possible inflection off this slope in the days ahead with the Fed rate decision on tap tomorrow. Note that daily RSI has now dropped below 50 for the first time since July and the turnover in momentum does leave the bulls vulnerable in the days ahead.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a proposed descending pitchfork extending off the monthly highs. Look for initial resistance at the median-line backed by monthly / weekly open at 7167/72. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this level tomorrow and a break / close above this mark would suggest a more significant near-term low is in place and validate a breakout of the weekly opening-range highs. Critical resistance remains at the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance at 7208/14. Gains beyond this threshold would mark would be needed to mark resumption of the uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the yearly high at 7258.

A break of below the late-July uptrend exposes the 100% extension of the monthly decline at 7100. Note that the 25% parallel of the near-term downtrend converges on this level tomorrow and a break / daily close below would be needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Subsequent support rests with the May low at 7080 and the 1.618% extension at 7045.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is testing multi-week uptrend support at the monthly range lows with key event risk on tap tomorrow. From a trading standpoint,  rallies would need to be limited to 7172 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7100 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

The focus now shifts squarely to tomorrow’s highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, with markets largely pricing in a rate hike following last week’s inflation data. With the move itself increasingly anticipated, attention will center on the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the dot plot, and Chair Warsh’s press conference for clues on the policy path into year-end. A more hawkish outlook could reinforce support for the U.S. dollar and pressure the break lower in AUD/USD. Conversely, a more constructive assessment of the inflation outlook—or signs that price pressures are beginning to stabilize—could temper expectations for subsequent hikes and offer the Aussie some relief. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex