Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• EUR/USD has pulled back after a 3.1% rally from the July low exhausted at a major retracement zone last week.
• While the broader July advance remains intact for now, price is quickly approaching pivotal support at the lower bounds of the uptrend- decision time for the bulls.  
• A deeper break would increase the risk that a more significant high is in place, while a recovery through resistance would revive the broader advance.
• Eurozone inflation and key U.S. labor-market data highlight event risk heading into September.
• Resistance 1.1631, 1.1704 (key), 1.1745- Support 1.1564/78 (key), 1.1535, 1.1472

EUR/USD is extending its pullback after the recent recovery stalled at a major resistance zone. The decline accelerated today on the heels of Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole World Economic Symposium with Euro now poised to mark the largest single-day loss since June. With the broader recovery still intact for now, the pair is approaching an important technical barrier that may determine whether this move remains a healthy correction or develops into a more meaningful reversal heading into September. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that, “The monthly & weekly opening ranges are preserved just above critical support, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead for guidance.” EUR/USD broke higher into the close of the month with the rallying extending more than 3.1% off the July low before exhausting at the 50% retracement of the yearly range near 1.1704 last week. The focus is on this pullback with Euro now approaching key near-term support at the lower bounds of the late-July uptrend.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD continuing to trade within the confines of an ascending pitchfork we have been tracking off July low. A break below the median line yesterday gathered pace on the back of Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole today with the decline now approaching confluent support at 1.1564/78- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of June rally,  and the May / January swing lows. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold into the open next week. A break / daily close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term high is in place, and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest at the August open at 1.1535 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1472. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial resistance is now eyed back at the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.1631) and is backed by the median line of the uptrend near ~1.1670s. Ultimately, a topside breach / daily close above the 1.1704 would be needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objective eyed at the yearly open at 1.1746 and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the April high close at 1.1793/99. Note that the upper parallel converges on this level early next month and strength surpassing this zone would validate a technical breakout of the broader January downtrend.

Bottom line: A reversal off resistance is now approaching near-term uptrend support. The focus is on a reaction off this pivotal zone into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 1.1534/78- rallies would need to be limited to the median-line IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Bulls would need to clear 1.1704 to mark resumption of the July uptrend.

Event risk picks up next week with Tuesday’s Eurozone inflation report offering the first major test for EUR/USD as markets assess the outlook for ECB policy. Attention then shifts to key U.S. labor market data, with the ADP private-sector employment report followed by the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls release. Following Chair Warsh’s commentary today, the Fed’s focus appears increasingly centered on inflation, fueling expectations for a near-term rate hike. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 60% probability of a September increase, but another disappointing employment report could challenge that outlook and temper support for the U.S. dollar. The combination of Eurozone inflation and U.S. jobs data should provide fresh guidance on the relative policy path between the ECB and Fed heading into September. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex