Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Fight to Stabilize at Pivotal Support

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp pullback from the August highs brought price back toward yearly open support.
• The September opening range remains intact just above support, keeping the immediate directional outlook unresolved.
• Bulls need to reclaim resistance to shift the technical focus back toward the August highs while losses below slope support would raise the risk of a more significant reversal.
• U.S. CPI represents the final major inflation test ahead of next week’s highly anticipated Fed rate decision.
• Resistance 4448, 4507/37 (key), 4658- Support 4305/19, 4230 (key), 4165

Gold remains at an important inflection point after the August rally gave way to a sharp correction late last month. Price has since stabilized at support near the yearly open, but the September range remains unresolved as traders await fresh direction. With U.S. CPI on tap tomorrow and the Fed decision looming next week, the coming sessions could prove critical in determining whether gold can regain its footing or remains vulnerable to another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had broken out of a multi-month consolidation pattern and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4165 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4319 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” Gold broke higher the following day with the rally extending more than 19.1% off the yearly low before exhausting into the upper parallel of the July pitchfork last month. A decline of more than 8.8% has responded to support with the September opening range taking shape just above. Risk for possible inflection off this zone and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the monthly range for guidance here.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading just above confluent support at 4305/19- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the April decline, the 50% retracement of the June rally, and the 2026 yearly open. Losses below this pivot zone would expose the 61.8% retracement which converges on the lower parallel at 4230. A break / daily close below this slope would suggest a more meaningful high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the July high-day close (HDC) at 4165 and the 100% extension of the August decline at 4097.

Monthly open resistance is eyed at 4448 with key resistance steady at 4507/37- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the March decline, the 61.8% retracement of the April decline, the 2025 high-day close (HDC) and the 200-day moving average. A breach / daily close above this threshold would validate a breakout of the September opening range and mark resumption of the July uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the August HDC at 4658 and the May HDC at 4716.

Bottom line: Gold is trading just above pivotal support with the monthly opening range preserved ahead of major event risk. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4230 for the July uptrend to remain viable with a breach / daily close above the 200-day moving average needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Attention now turns to tomorrow’s U.S. CPI report, the final major inflation reading ahead of next week’s highly anticipated Fed rate decision. Expectations for additional tightening increased following today’s PPI release, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly a 72% probability of a rate hike next week. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could reinforce those expectations, potentially driving Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher while increasing pressure on gold. Conversely, softer inflation could challenge the recent repricing and help stabilize bullion heading into the Fed. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex