British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Eye Resistance
British Pound nearly erased the monthly declines with GBP/USD carving a weekly opening-range ahead of the Fed. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
Share this:
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels
- British Pound tries to erase monthly losses- Sterling rallies 3.5% into yearly open resistance
- GBP/USD weekly opening-range in focus heading into FOMC, U.S. 4Q GDP & key inflation data
- Resistance 1.2487-1.2514, 1.2575-1.2613 (key), 1.2731/73- Support 1.2415, 1.2349, 1.23(key)
The British Pound staged the largest single-week rally since November 2022 last week with GBP/USD rebounding sharply back into yearly open resistance. The weekly opening-range has taken shape just below resistance and the battle lines are drawn heading into the FOMC rate decision and key inflation data this week. These are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Short-term Outlook, we noted to look for possible inflection as GBP/USD was testing slope support with, “the next major technical considerations at the 2023 objective yearly open (1.2084) and the October 2023 swing low at 1.2337- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.” Sterling broke lower the following day with price registering an intraday low at 1.2099 before rebounding sharply.
The subsequent rally extended 3.5% off the lows with the bulls nearly erasing the entire monthly decline. The immediate focus is on this reaction into yearly open-resistance at 1.2514 with the objective weekly opening-range taking shape just below- looking for a breakout in the days ahead.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork with the lower parallel now highlighting near-term support at the 23.6% retracement of the September decline at 1.2415. A break below this threshold would threaten a deeper pullback towards the 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 1.2349 and the 2024 swing low at the 1.23-handle- losses below this level would suggest a more significant high was registered / threaten downtrend resumption. Subsequent support eyed at the yearly LDC at 1.2202 with 1.20347/84 still critical.
A topside breach / close above 1.2514 exposes key resistance at 1.2575-1.2613- a region defined by the January high, the 38.2% retracement, and the June / July swing lows. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breakout needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway towards key resistance at the 2024 yearly open / February 2019 low at 1.2731/73.
Bottom line: The British Pound rallied back in to yearly open-resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below- the immediate focus in on a breakout here with the recent recovery vulnerable into the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.23 IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach above 1.2613 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant reversal is underway.
Keep in mind the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is slated for tomorrow with Q4 GDP and key inflation data (US core PCE) on tap into the close of the week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Trump Rally at Risk Into Resistance
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Post-Trump Plunge Tests Support
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout Looms
- Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bulls Tested Ahead of Trump
- Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Poised to Snap Six-Week Selloff
- Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Imminent
- Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Eye the Break
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
Silver forecast: metals liquidation drags XAG/USD into $50-55 support
Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Support Reversal Sparks Monthly Range Breakout 10 23 2026
A sharp reversal off key support has fueled the AUD/USD recovery, with resistance now in focus ahead of next week’s Fed decision and Australian CPI.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.