Crude Oil Forecast: Key Levels Ahead of FOMC and NFP Week
Crude Oil Forecast: Oil’s track to 74 was halted by positive US GDP and declining inventories. What’s next for FOMC and NFP Week?
Share this:
Key Events for the Week Ahead
- FOMC meeting (Wednesday)
- Crude oil inventories (Wednesday)
- ISM manufacturing PMI (Thursday)
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
- OPEC online monitoring meeting - market pulse check (August 1st)
US GDP Resilience
The US GDP showed resilience with a higher-than-expected reading on Thursday, surpassing the first quarter GDP of 2024 and offsetting the bearish sentiment stemming from the Chinese economy on oil charts.
Crude Oil Inventories
Additionally, the consecutive four-week decline in crude oil inventories has contributed to halting the recent downtrend, reflecting strength alongside the latest GDP figures during the summer season.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
Next week’s focus will be on the leading growth indicators of the US economy, providing early signs for developing growth metrics as recession warnings have surfaced this week. The ISM manufacturing PMI is watched on Thursday and the final share of volatility for the week lies with the non-farm payrolls.
Monetary Policy and Market Volatility
Following today’s PCE data, the Fed’s FOMC statement is expected to inject volatility into the markets after a weaker-than-expected week driven by disappointing earnings and an uncertain economic and political atmosphere.
Crude Oil Forecast: USOIL – 3-Day Timeframe – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Oil’s consolidation seems to be getting narrower, similarly reflected on the relative strength indicator as well. Oil is still expected to retest the lower border of the consolidation range after completing its potential bullish retracement.
A break below the latest low of 75.90 could potentially resume the overall downtrend in oil.
Projected Resistance levels
- Within the consolidation: 81 and 83.40
- Above the consolidation: 85 and 87.30
Oil is still expected to retest the lower border of the consolidation range after completing its potential bullish retracement. A break below the latest low of 75.90 could potentially resume the overall downtrend in oil.
Projected Support levels
- Within the consolidation: 75.90 and 74
- Beyond the consolidation: 72.70 and 69-70
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Silver's bullish breakout case builds as bond yields retreat
The Democratic blue wave has sent crude and Treasury yields sharply lower, improving the outlook for precious metals. With gold already breaking higher, could silver be next?
GBP/USD forecast: US Mid-terms, NFP and BoE put cable in sharp focus
The US dollar has been a standout loser in the FX space today. A Democrat-controlled Congress is widely seen as being at least mildly negative for the dollar, partly because of the potential implications for the AI investment story and partly because of the risk of another prolonged government funding standoff, potentially from next summer. This has allowed the likes of the GBP/USD to rally alongside gold and silver.
Crude Oil Prices Fall, What the U.S. Midterms Mean for Brent
Crude oil prices have pulled back more than 11% from October highs, in line with U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes and shifting U.S. midterm expectations.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.