Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: OPEC Meeting vs WTI Price Risks
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Crude supply risks are back in focus as WTI trades within a 3-year down trending channel, with attention turning to economic growth and trade momentum amid OPEC’s planned supply cut unwinds. What are the key levels to watch this week?
Share this:
Key Events to Watch
- Chinese CPI – Wednesday: Will deflationary pressures deepen?
- FOMC Minutes & USD Weakness: Possible policy clues and implications for oil demand
- U.S. Crude Inventories: Retesting 3-month highs, adding pressure to prices
As WTI trades back inside the 3-year downtrend channel established since the 2022 highs, the outlook has shifted to a neutral-to-bearish tone, with markets awaiting a decisive breakout.
Several macro and supply-side factors are reinforcing this stance, including OPEC’s planned unwind of voluntary supply cuts totaling more than 400,000 barrels per day starting in August, rising U.S. crude inventories nearing 3-month highs, and ongoing trade uncertainty tied to near-term tariff decisions.
Crude Oil Inventories:
Source: Forex Factory
Despite current downside pressure, several bullish factors are helping to hold prices and are worth monitoring:
- Continued U.S. dollar weakness could lend support to commodity prices.
- OPEC’s confidence in phasing out cuts suggests a more optimistic supply-demand outlook.
- Expectations for interest rate cuts and potential trade agreements may boost demand sentiment.
So what are the key levels I’m watching?
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
As oil holds back within the 3-year down trending channel, a bearish-to-neutral stance persists in line with OPEC’s supply strategies. The latest oil drop found support above the 64-mark, aligning with the neckline of a previously formed inverted head and shoulders pattern that corresponded with the breakout above 70 during Middle East escalations. Now that we are back at that support and technical checkpoint, the scenarios are as follows:
Bearish Scenario: Should oil close below the 63.40 level, downside risks may accelerate toward the midzone of the established 3-year channel, aligning with the 60, 58, and 56 levels, respectively, before confirming projections for new 2025 lows.
Bullish Scenario: On the upside, if crude holds above the 64–66 support zone, it may recover toward the 69 and 72 resistance levels, where it is likely to challenge a fresh breakout attempt. Such a move could reshape the broader WTI outlook, either sustaining or overcoming the dominance of the long-standing down trending channel.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Fed, DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook 10 26 2026
Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices charts this week.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX rebounds as Anthropic files for IPO
U.S. stocks opened higher after last week's sell-off, which pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq into their second straight weekly decline. Anthropic filed for its IPO, helping sentiment towards tech.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Elections Test Brent–WTI Resistance Levels
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Brent–WTI spread tests long-term resistance as monthly RSI reaches overbought territory and key elections approach. Brent and WTI levels and risks ahead.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.