Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: WTI Holds Above $97 as US–Iran Proposals Misalign, Supply Risks Persist
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: US–Iran proposals remain misaligned, choking what could become the largest supply shock in history in terms of inventories and flows. This continues to support WTI and Brent in bullish territory, holding above $93 and $100, respectively.
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Weekly Drivers: Oil Prices, Geopolitics, and Supply Risks
- Trump stated that the latest Iranian peace proposal is unacceptable, following a bullish weekly close in crude prices, above $96.
- OPEC’s Sunday meeting highlighted the group’s unity despite the UAE’s exit, announcing a symbolic production increase of 188,000 barrels for June. However, production quotas remain ineffective as long as the Hormuz Strait stays disrupted, stranding and threatening tanker flows.
- Hormuz blockages and facility strikes are extending the recovery timeline required for the region to restore oil and gas supply capacity.
- Price action suggests bullish positioning above the 2023 highs, with key levels at $93 for WTI and $95 for Brent.
From a 2-week perspective, strong price rejections are visible below the $120 level, forming lower highs. At the same time, a strong bullish rejection from the $76 zone reinforces a broader structure of indecision with a bullish bias on the crude oil chart—until either diplomatic alignment or further geopolitical escalation materializes.
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2-Week Chart Analysis (Log Scale)
Source: Trading view
The following framework remains anchored in the Q2 2026 outlook, reinforcing the importance of long-term levels over political narratives on the price chart.
Scenario Framework:
- Bearish Scenario:
A diplomatic breakthrough, combined with a close below $91, $88, and $84, would expose prices to the previous rejection zone at $76–$74—the highs of June 2025 during prior Middle East tensions—testing the waters for a deeper crude unwind or another volatility-driven whipsaw. - Base Case:
Prolonged supply disruption keeps crude oil prices trading within the $91–$115 range. - Bullish Scenario:
Extreme geopolitical escalation could drive a sustained breakout above $115, extending toward $135 and $157, aligning with the 0.786 and 100% Fibonacci extensions of the 2020–2022–2026 price cycle.
Headline-driven volatility is one aspect of the market, but long-term price closes and sustained levels ultimately reveal the dominant trend and broader outlook for crude oil beyond short-term noise.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
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