Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Faces Fed- Breakout Looms

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• EUR/USD has rebounded more than 1% from the monthly lows after defending downtrend support
• The pair remains trapped within a well-defined weekly range ahead of the Fed decision- breakout imminent.
• A break below support would reinforce the broader downtrend while a topside breakout would challenge key resistance levels.
• Resistance 1.1620, 1.1659/75 (key), 1.1716- Support 1.1568/78 (key), 1.1535, 1.1483/92

EUR/USD has recovered from the monthly lows and is now holding a well-defined range just above pivotal support ahead of today’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision. While the broader technical outlook remains vulnerable below the 200-day moving average, the immediate focus is on a breakout of this near-term consolidation for guidance. With major event risk directly ahead, traders are watching for the catalyst that could determine the next directional move. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had, “broken below pivotal support and keeps the April downtrend in focus early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 1.16-handle IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the lower parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Euro registered a fresh monthly low the following day before rebounding sharply off slope support with the subsequent rally extending more than 1% off the monthly low.

The recovery takes Euro back above key pivot zone with the weekly opening range intact ahead of today’s Fed rate decision. The focus is on a breakout with the broader threat still weighted to the downside while below the 200-day moving average.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork late-May high with the rally exhausting into the 75% parallel this week. The weekly opening-range is set just above initial support at 1.1568/76- a region defined by the weekly open, the 61.8% retracement of the March rally and the January & May swing lows. Note that the median-line converges on this zone today and a break / daily close below would be needed to mark resumption of the multi-week downtrend toward the low-day close at 1.1535 and key support at 1.1483/92. This region is defined by the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach of the weekly range exposes the upper parallel with key resistance / bearish invalidation eyed at 1.1659/75- a region defined by the monthly open, the 200-day moving average. A topside breach / daily close above this zone is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the Aril decline at 1.1716 and the yearly open at 1.1746.

 

Bottom line: Euro rebounded off downtrend support last week with price holding a well-defined range just above the median line. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1675 IF EUR/USD is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to threaten another test of the monthly lows.

The Fed is on tap within the hour and while no change is expected, traders will be combing through the updated Summary of Economic Projections on growth, employment, and most importantly inflation. This will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair and investors are awaiting potential changes to central bank communications that may include reducing the number of meetings & staff projections as well as possible elimination of the interest rate dot plot.

As it pertains to the U.S. Dollar, the focus will be on how Warsh & Co. assess the outlook for inflation considering the recent Iran agreement and the impact on monetary policy. As of now Fed Fund Futures are still pricing a roughly 60% chance the central bank will need to hike rates this year to curb rising inflation. If the projections show a more upbeat outlook for inflation, the adjustment in rate expectations could further sap USD strength. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex