Euro Short-term Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Plunges into October
Euro is searching for support within the April uptrend with EUR/USD poised to mark a three-day losing streak. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
Share this:
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- Euro plummets more than 1.3% off yearly high / technical resistance- threat for deeper correction
- EUR/USD three-day decline now approaching initial support hurdles- NFP on tap
- Resistance 1.1135/40 (key), 1.1192, 1.1228- Support 1.1038/44, 1.10, 1.0980 (key)
The Euro is poised to mark a third consecutive-daily decline with EUR/USD reversing sharply off uptrend resistance. The losses threaten a deeper correction within the broader uptrend and we’re on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that we were, “on the lookout for an exhaustion low in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the lower parallels – losses should be limited to 1.0947 IF the June advance is to remain intact…” EUR/USD had already marked a low at 1.10 the previous day with Euro rallying more than 1.9% into the close September.
The advance stalled into uptrend resistance for a fourth-day on Monday with the subsequent sell-off accelerating today on the heels of softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation data. The decline was further exacerbated by headlines of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel and the US Dollar has found some footing here. The focus is on this pullback into initial support at the objective yearly open / September open at 1.1038/44- looking for possible inflection off this mark this week.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a proposed descending pitchfork with the median-line seen just above the 1.1038/44 support zone. A break / close below this threshold would threaten a test of broader uptrend support with initial objectives eyed at the 1.10-handle and the 38.2% retracement of the April advance at 1.0980- look for a larger reaction there IF reached (broader bullish invalidation).
Initial resistance is eyed at the October open / December high at 1.1135/40 with a topside breach / close above the yearly high-close at 1.1192 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2023 high-day close (HDC) at 1.1228 and the highlighted Fibonacci confluence at 1.1275/92.
Bottom line: Euro has turned from technical resistance and threatens a larger correction within the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the December high IF price is heading lower on this stretch – ultimately, Euro would need to mark an exhaustion low ahead of the 1.0980 for the broader April rally to remain viable. Keep in mind we are just carving the monthly / quarterly opening-ranges here with US non-farm payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Defends Support at Fresh Yearly Low
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Reversal off Resistance
- British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Eyes Resistance
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: AI earnings could overshadow the Fed and BoJ
AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.
US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
The Dollar is working on its second consecutive red week and while sellers didn’t exactly pounce on fresh lows, there’s an opening door for bears to make a move.
Silver forecast: metals liquidation drags XAG/USD into $50-55 support
Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.