Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Surge Hits Multi-Year Barrier – Inflection Risk Builds
The Euro rally exhausted at major resistance this week and a reaction here may determine whether the rally extends or rolls over into February.
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Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- EUR/USD rally extended more than 4% from the January low with price testing major multi-year trend resistance into the close
- While the broader outlook remains constructive, the bulls may be vulnerable into monthly cross and a sustained break through resistance is needed to fuel the next leg of the uptrend.
- Major event risk on tap into the monthly open with ECB and NFPs next week
- Resistance 1.1917-1.2020 (key), 1.2218, 1.2350 - Support 1.1746/75, 1.1598 (key), 1.1497
EUR/USD surged more than 4% off the January lows with the rally exhausting this week at a major multi-year resistance zone. The immediate focus is on the market’s response at this threshold and while the broader structure remains constructive, a reaction here is likely to shape near-term direction into the start of February trade. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD monthly & weekly technical charts
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Monthly
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that the early-month pullback in EUR/USD was, “approaching confluent uptrend support. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on possible inflection into 1.1598- a reaction there will likely determine if the late-December pullback was simply a correction or whether a larger trend reversal will take shape into the start of the year.” Price registered a close low at 1.1598 days later before rebounding sharply with EUR/USD marking an outside-weekly reversal off the low the following week.
The rally extended more than 4.3% off the January lows before exhausting into a major technical barrier this week at 1.1917-1.2020- a region defined by the 2025 swing high, the 100% extension of the 2022 advance, and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone into the start of February. The immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold and a topside breach / weekly close above is ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.
Initial weekly support now rests at 1.1746/75- a region define by the objective yearly open, the 2025 high-week close (HWC) and the 2025 high-close. Medium-term bullish invalidation is now raised to the 75% parallel which converges on the January low-close at 1.1598. A break / weekly close below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger correction is underway within the 2025 uptrend. Subsequent support rests with the March 220 and the 2022 high at 1.1497 and the April high-close at 1.1394.
A weekly close above this key pivot zone would be needed to mark uptrend resumption and could fuel another bout of accelerated gains for the Euro. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2021 HWC at 1.2218 and the 2021 swing high at 1.2350.
Bottom line: The Euro rally exhausted into uptrend resistance this week at key technical barrier- risk for major inflection off this zone into the start of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1746 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.2020 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind key event risk is slated into start of February with the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Euro Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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