EUR/USD Pushes Above 50-Day SMA for First Time Since October
EUR/USD pushes above the 50-Day SMA (1.0444) for the first time since October as it climbs to a fresh monthly high (1.0457).
Share this:
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD pushes above the 50-Day SMA (1.0444) for the first time since October as it climbs to a fresh monthly high (1.0457), but the recent advance in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary should it struggle to close above the moving average.
EUR/USD Pushes Above 50-Day SMA for First Time Since October
EUR/USD extends the rally from the start of the week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its highest level since September, and the exchange rate may no longer track the negative slope in the moving average amid the break above the opening range for January.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
However, the Euro may face headwinds ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on January 30 as Vice-President Luis de Guindos acknowledges that ‘the balance of macroeconomic risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to concerns about low growth’ while speaking at the 15th Spain Investors Day.
Vice-President Guindos went on to say that ‘if the incoming data confirm our baseline, the policy trajectory is clear, and we expect to continue to further reduce the restrictiveness of monetary policy,’ and the comments suggest the ECB will implement lower interest rates in 2025 amid the progress in bringing down inflation towards its 2% target.
With that said, speculation surrounding the ECB rate decision may sway EUR/USD over the coming days, but the exchange rate may attempt to further retrace the decline from the December high (1.0630) should it no longer track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0444).
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD pushes above the opening range for January as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above the 1.0448 (2023 low) to 1.0480 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the 1.0580 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around the December high (1.0630), but EUR/USD may continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0444) should it struggle to close above the moving average.
- Need a move below 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) for EUR/USD to threaten the bullish price series, with a close below 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards parity.
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/JPY Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision
USD/CAD Spikes to Fresh Monthly High as Trump Prepares Canada Tariff
GBP/USD Pullback Pushes RSI Toward Oversold Territory
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Struggle to Push Above Weekly High
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Selloff Nears Critical Support Ahead of NFP 11 4 2026
USD/CHF bears are closing in on critical trend support, with the next reaction likely to determine whether the October decline has further to run.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Support Reversal Sets Up Breakout Test Ahead of NFP 11 4 2026
Euro bulls are attempting to build on the rebound from recent lows, but pivotal resistance still stands in the way of a larger EUR/USD recovery.
GBP/USD forecast: US Mid-terms, NFP and BoE put cable in sharp focus
The US dollar has been a standout loser in the FX space today. A Democrat-controlled Congress is widely seen as being at least mildly negative for the dollar, partly because of the potential implications for the AI investment story and partly because of the risk of another prolonged government funding standoff, potentially from next summer. This has allowed the likes of the GBP/USD to rally alongside gold and silver.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.