GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week | November 10, 2025

The GBP/USD edged higher Monday morning, and was on course to post a fourth day of gains with US dollar down across the board on the back of a positive session for risk assets. At the time of writing, US index futures were higher by more than 1% by mid-morning London session, with European markets also up sharply and Bitcoin rising to $106K after its brief dip below $100K handle last week. Risk sentiment took a boost from optimism the US Senate was getting close to ending the US government shutdown. If this happens, we will have plenty of US economic data that have been delayed and that could provide further clarity for the Fed and investors alike. Last week, though, the available US data we had from the private sector pointed to an overall weaker economy. That helped to give a lift to foreign currencies, except the safe haven Japanese yen. With key UK data to come this week, the GBP/USD forecast will be in focus, although the budget at the end of the month is a bigger risk event for UK assets.

 

Dollar remains under mild pressure

 

Last week saw the US dollar index briefly poke its head above the 100.00 level, where it struggled and turned lower from. There are several factors that prevent the US dollar from rising further, with the prolonged US government shutdown being one. On top of this, the latest signs of a cooling US labour market added to the unease, prompting a shift towards foreign currencies.  Last week’s Challenger report showed more than 153,000 job cuts in the US, primarily in the tech and warehousing sectors. With official federal data still unavailable, investors are relying heavily on private reports — leading to heightened volatility. Although the ADP payrolls data briefly lifted sentiment, money markets are now pricing in a greater probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, keeping the dollar largely undermined.

 

But at the weekend, the US Senate took a major step towards re-opening the government. A group of moderate Democrats voted to support a deal to end shutdown, resulting in a 60-40 Senate vote on a procedural measure to advance the bill. The Senate will meet again today, and we could see a vinal bot on the bills, before it goes to the House. Once approved there, then President Donald Trump will need to sign it as part of the formalities.

 

GBP/USD 100 forecast: UK wage and GDP in focus

 

This week’s global macro calendar is quite quiet, but for the UK we will have a couple of important indicators scheduled for release. Average earnings will be released on Tuesday and Q3 GDP among a few other macro pointers will be released on Thursday.

 

The Bank of England was more dovish when holding rates last week, as 4 instead of the 3 expected MPC members voted to cut interest rates. The Bank said rates are likely on gradual downward path and that risk to inflation is now more balanced. Earnings feed into inflation so any weakness here could cement expectations for a December cut. Meanwhile, the UK economy has been expanding at a faster pace than expected in the last three quarters. Most recently, GDP increased by 0.3% in Q2. As well as monthly and quarterly GDP estimates, we will also have construction and manufacturing output, industrial production and a few other UK macro indicators released at the same time on Thursday, potentially making a pivotal day for the GBP/USD forecast.

 

Technical GBP/USD forecast and key levels to watch

 

 

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD forecast looks somewhat positive after rates refused to hold below prior support in the 1.3100-1.3140 range. The fact that this area has now been reclaimed is a positive sign. Yet the bearish trend still looms around 1.3250 where the 200-day average will also need to be addressed. So, it is not out of the woods just yet and level to level remains the name of the game, especially with those economic pointers to come from the UK and then later this month the budget. Lots of choppiness should be expected.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R