Gold Price Falls Toward Monthly Low Ahead of Fed Symposium

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD

The price of gold falls toward the monthly low ($3282) after failing to test the July high ($3439), but bullion may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA ($3350) as it still trades within the June range.

Gold Price Falls Toward Monthly Low Ahead of Fed Symposium

The price of gold may establish a series of lower highs and lows as it slips to a fresh weekly low ($3315), and bullion may struggle to retain the rally from the start of the month as higher US tariffs appear to be having a limited impact on the global economy.

As a result, the dissipating threat of a trade war may limit the appeal of gold, but signs of persistent inflation may push the Federal Reserve to keep US interest rates higher for longer as ‘a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment.’

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In turn, the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming may reveal a growing dissent within the central bank as Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller preferred a 25bp rate-cut in July, and fears of a policy error may curb the recent decline in the price of gold as it offers an alternative to fiat-currencies.

With that said, the price of gold may continue to trade within the June range should it defend the advance from the monthly low ($3282), but failure to hold above the June low ($3248) may indicate a further change in trend as the 50-Day SMA ($2249) no longer reflects the positive slope from earlier this year.

XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView  

• The price of gold extends the decline from earlier this week to initiate a series of lower highs and lows, and a move/close below $3280 (100% Fibonacci extension) may lead to a test of the June low ($3248).
• Failure to hold above the $3160 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) to $3190 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) zone may push the price of gold toward the May low ($3121), with a move/close below $3120 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up the $3050 (100% Fibonacci extension) to $3070 (50% Fibonacci extension) area.
• At the same time, the price of gold may continue to hold within the June range should it defend the advance from the monthly low ($3282), but a breach of the June high ($3451) brings the April high ($3500) on the radar.

Additional Market Outlooks

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GBP/USD Recovery Curbs Threat of Head-and-Shoulders Formation

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Eyes Monthly High

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Recovers from Fresh Monthly Low

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong