Gold Rallies Towards a $4k Test – but Can Bulls Break the Trend?

Gold Talking Points:

• Gold prices re-tested $4k last week and unlike June/July, sellers were able to slice through.
• A bid has shown so far to start this week but with Treasuries seeing capital flows the big question is whether gold can reverse course or whether bears have more room to run before a tradeable low appears.

As risk aversion has hit global markets, gold hasn’t been able to escape unscathed and the metal continues to reverse gains from the prior two-year rally. While the $4k level held the lows well back in June and July, it was unable to do the same last week as sellers sank price down to a fresh yearly low. So far this week, a bounce has developed, but there was some technical damage from the sell-off that would make it difficult to dismiss the possibility of further lows, at this point.

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Daily: Sellers Attack

Two weeks ago gold closed below $4k on a weekly basis for the first time in over a year. Notably, despite multiple tests this summer, buyers continued to come in to bid prices above the big figure by the weekly close. But two weeks ago, that didn’t happen, and while last week started with an optimistic bounce, resistance played in at prior support, around the $4077 level which is the 23.6% retracement of the 2022-2026 major move. That led to a lower low after a lower high and this illustrates continued bearish control in the pair.

Gold Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Short-Term

So far, bulls have pulled up just shy of prior support which was at $3975. I’ve linked that up to $4k to establish a zone of resistance, with the $4021 swing just above that and then the $4077 Fibonacci level on top of that. Each price represents a spot where sellers can jump in for defense as this defines the recent bearish structure in gold.

If bulls can force a break through that prior lower-high, then the door can open for short-term reversal potential, with the $4111 level above that, and then a major zone from $4217-4235. If or when that zone gets traded through, then the prospect of bigger picture reversals can gain more attraction as this was a hard-fought area on the chart when the trend was breaking down.

Gold Four-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro