Gold Price Outlook Mired by Close Below 50-Day SMA
The price of gold may continue to give back the advance from the September low ($2472) as it no longer tracks the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2650).
Share this:
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD
The price of gold falls for the fourth consecutive day to register a fresh monthly low ($2578), and bullion may continue to give back the advance from the September low ($2472) as it no longer tracks the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2650).
Gold Price Outlook Mired by Close Below 50-Day SMA
Keep in mind, the price of gold pushed below the October low ($2603) after closing below the moving average for the first time since July, with the recent weakness in the precious metal pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since October 2023.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
In turn, the RSI may show the bearish momentum gathering pace as it approaches oversold territory, with a move below 30 in the oscillator likely to be accompanied by a further decline in gold like the price action from last year.
With that said, the price of gold may continue to trade to fresh monthly lows as it carves a series of lower highs and lows, but failure to test the September low ($2472) may keep the RSI out of oversold territory.
XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
- The price of gold extends the weakness from the start of the month to take out the October low ($2603), with a break/close below $2550 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up the $2480 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $2500 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
- Next area of interest comes in around the September low ($2472), but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may show the bearish momentum abating should it struggle to push into oversold territory.
- Need a move back above $2630 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) for gold to snap the bearish prices series, with a close above $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) bringing the monthly high ($2762) on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD on Cusp of Testing 2022 High
GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on Break of Monthly Opening Range
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Gold Breaks Down on Descending Triangle, Sets Up $4k Test
Gold started last week with a strong sell-off but from that move a bounce developed. Bulls could not hold on through the weekly close, however, and the bearish structure remains in-place for XAU/USD.
Gold Update: XAU/USD Remains Under Pressure Even After the NFP Report
As the trading week comes to an end, weakness around gold price action remains evident in the short term. This can be seen in the performance of the past two sessions, where the metal has declined by approximately 0.3%. Although the move has not been particularly aggressive, it highlights that buying pressure continues to struggle to regain control of the market.
USD/CAD forecast: rally could accelerate above June highs at 1.4250
USD/CAD recovered quickly after weaker US jobs data, keeping the bullish trend in focus. A move above the June highs could accelerate the rally as inflation keeps the Fed under pressure.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.