US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
USD/JPY appears to be defending the rally following the US election as it retraces the decline from the monthly high (154.71).
Share this:
US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY
USD/JPY appears to be defending the rally following the US election as it retraces the decline from the monthly high (154.71), and the exchange rate may attempt to break out of the opening range for November amid the limited reaction to the Federal Reserve rate-cut.
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
USD/JPY rebounds ahead of the monthly low (151.29) on the back of US Dollar strength, and developments coming out of the US may continue to sway the exchange rate even as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
US Economic Calendar
The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation climbing to 2.6% in October from 2.4% per annum the month prior, while the core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% during the same period.
Indications of persistent inflation may keep USD/JPY afloat as it put pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust policy at a slower pace, and the central bank may move to the sidelines at its last meeting for 2024 as the FOMC pledges to ‘make our decisions meeting by meeting.’
At the same time, a softer-than-expected CPI report may encourage the Fed to implement another rate-cut at the December meeting, and speculation for lower US interest rates may drag on the Greenback as the Chairman Powell and Co. are ‘on a path to a more neutral stance.’
With that said, USD/JPY may attempt to break out of the opening range for November as it retraces the decline from last week, but failure to push above the monthly high (154.71) may lead to a larger pullback in the exchange rate as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below overbought territory.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
- USD/JPY no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows as it bounces back ahead of the 200-Day SMA (151.71), with a breach above the monthly high (154.71) raising the scope for a move towards 156.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension).
- Next region of interest comes in around the 1990 high (160.40) but USD/JPY may face range bound conditions should it struggle to push above the monthly high (154.71).
- At the same time, failure to hold above the monthly low (151.29) may push USD/JPY back towards the 148.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 150.30 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone, with the next area of interest coming in around 144.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 145.90 (50% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
Monetary vs Fiscal Policy: Implications for FX Markets
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of US CPI
USD/CAD Still Holds Below Monthly High Following Dovish Fed Rate Cut
GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of 200-Day SMA amid Hawkish BoE Rate Cut
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Meet Resistance at Yearly Highs 10 1 2026
The U.S. Dollar has held firm despite fading Fed hike bets, but Friday’s payrolls could test the rally’s staying power.
Dow Jones forecast: Stock markets under pressure from multiple sources
When looking at the major tech-heavy US indices like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, you wouldn’t think that the stock market is particularly weak. Yet, beneath the surface, the market is far from healthy right now. Investors are evidently just piling into the big tech and AI names, and as a result, market breadth is deteriorating. Other indices like the small cap Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones are starting to reflect that weakness.
Nikkei breakout accelerates as yen weakness returns
Nikkei has started October with a powerful breakout, helped by renewed yen weakness and strong upside momentum
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.