Gold, Silver Outlook: Sentiment Lifts on U.S. Government Resolution Headlines

Key Events

• The U.S. Senate voted 60–40 to pass a bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
• U.S. indices held on to Friday’s gains, while precious metals followed, climbing toward three-week highs.
• Market attention now shifts to government resolutions and the tentatively scheduled CPI report on Thursday.

Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing following recent U.S. government resolutions. While U.S. indices are holding their gains near last week’s closes, above 3-month trendlines, precious metals are extending higher toward three-week highs — reflecting renewed risk appetite tempered by a hedge of caution across markets.

However, the current bounce could merely represent a corrective phase within a broader precious metals pullback following the 2025 rally.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Gold Outlook: 4H Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From a daily perspective, gold has broken above the 4,050-resistance, eyeing the 4,100 mark next. A clean hold above 4,100 is expected to support an advance toward 4,150 and 4,200 resistance levels. Sustained momentum beyond these zones could redirect gold prices toward new record highs.

On the downside, the 4,050 area now serves as a support zone. A break below this level could extend declines toward 4,000, 3,920, and 3,780, presenting another potential dip-buying opportunity. Should losses deepen, prices may drop another 200 points toward the 3,500 level — a previously strong resistance that may act as a new support. This level is clearly visible on the monthly chart below.

Gold Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From the monthly perspective, the 3,500 support is significant — not only as a prior five-month resistance in 2025 but also because it aligns with the trendline connecting consecutive higher highs between 2016 and 2020. This confluence suggests a nearly decade-long resistance could now be transforming into support, should gold prices take a clean dip and close below the 3,920 mark.

Silver Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

On the daily chart, silver is holding a bullish rebound similar to gold, recovering from the 45.50 low and climbing back toward the 50 mark. Key resistance levels in focus are 50.30 and 51.30. A sustained hold above these could redirect the broader trend toward record highs alongside gold, with targets at 53.40, 57.00, and 63.80, as derived from the monthly patterns below.

The current bounce could merely represent a corrective phase within a broader precious metals pullback following the 2025 rally.

Silver Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a weekly perspective, silver’s price action has sharply broken above a parallel channel, similar to gold’s pattern, though the channel here spans from 2023. The critical support zone lies between 44.30 and 42.90, aligning with the trendline connecting consecutive higher highs between 2023 and 2024, and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement ratio of the uptrend between the 2022 trough at 17.55 and the 2025 peak at 54.30.

On the upside, a clean hold above the duplicated channel’s midzone and the yearly high of 54.30 could fuel gains toward the upper boundary of the channel, targeting 57.00 and 63.80, respectively.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves