Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Tackle Resistance
Japanese Yen is on the defensive as a four-week rally in USD/JPY struggles at technical resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly chart.
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Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/JPY rebounds off confluent trend support- poised to mark fourth weekly advance
- USD/JPY risk for price inflection as bulls struggle at resistance- US retail sales / consumer sentiment on tap
- Resistance 149.39, 151.63/95 (key), 155.03- Support 145.37, 143.67/90 (key), 139.58-140.49
The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly decline with USD/JPY rallying nearly 6.3% off the yearly low. The advance is attempting to breach technical resistance this week and the focus is on the Friday close with respect to this key pivot zone. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY had, “responded to support near the 2024 swing lows and the focus is on this near-term recovery within the broader downtrend.” USD/JPY has rallied more than 6.2% off those lows with the bulls attempting to mark a fourth consecutive weekly advance.
The rally is testing a break of confluent resistance this week at 38.2% retracement of the yearly range near 147.14. Note that the median-line converges on this zone this week further highlights the technical significance of this threshold. Watch the weekly close with respect to this slope.
Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 50% retracement at 149.39 and 151.13/95- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 61.8% retracement, and the 2022/2023 highs. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Weekly-open support at 145.37 backed by the 2025 / 2024 low-week closes (LWC) at 143.67/90. Losses below this threshold would threaten the 2021 uptrend with subsequent objectives seen at 139.58-140.49 and the 100% extension of the 2024 decline / July 2023 swing low at 136.51-137.24.
Bottom line: USD/JPY is attempting to mount a key technical confluence, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 147.14. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to the weekly-open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 151.95 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / mark resumption of the broader uptrend.
Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. retail sales data Thursday with consumer sentiment on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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