Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises as stocks shrug off US-Venezuela tensions
US stocks are set to open higher on Monday, the start of the first full trading week of the year, and after the capture of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro by the US over the weekend. US ISM manufacturing data is due shortly.
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US futures
Dow futures 1%, S&P futures 0.68% & Nasdaq futures 0.7%
In Europe
FTSE 0.35% & DAX 1%
- Stocks rise, unaffected by Maduro’s capture
- USD rises, Gold jumps
- US ISM manufacturing, services PMI & US NFP are due this week
- Oil falls after US intervention in Venezuela
Stocks rise on solid start to first full trading week
US stocks are set to open higher on Monday, the start of the first full trading week of the year, and after the capture of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro by the US over the weekend.
The markets are not showing signs of being rattled by the US intervention and Trump's threats toward Canada and Mexico.
President Trump said on Saturday that the US would run Venezuela until a proper political transition takes place. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a more measured tone on Sunday. The markets will continue to monitor developments and their impact on oil markets. There is still uncertainty over what comes next.
Elsewhere, growth assets are in focus with the Nasdaq posting solid gains. The buoyant mood in big tech was most prevalent in Asia, where regional indices hit record highs. AI optimism remains a dominant factor in the markets.
Attention this week also turns back to US data with ISM manufacturing PMI due shortly. Expectations are for the PMI to rise modestly to 48.3 from 48.2. Services PMI is due on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll report is due on Friday. This could provide more clues on the outlook for monetary policy.
Corporate news
US energy firms such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil are rallying after Trump announced a team of officials would temporarily assume control over Venezuela, adding that Washington is demanding total access to the oil-rich Latin American country.
NVIDIA is edging higher as Jensen Huang, the CEO of the AI chipmaker, is set to deliver an address at a tech industry event. Any comments by Huang are also closely watched.
Nasdaq forecast – technical analysis.
The Nasdaq trades within a symmetrical channel with the price recovering from the rising trendline and horizontal support at 25,100, and is testing the 50 SMA at 25,400. A rose above here and the falling trendline at 25,650 opens the door to the December high at 25,835. A rise above here opens the door to 26,250 and fresh record highs. On the downside, a break below 25,100 opens the door to 24,650, and beyond here, 24,000 comes into focus.
FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD gains
The U.S. dollar is rising, benefiting from some safe-haven demand after the US intervened in Venezuela over the weekend. Attention is on US IM manufacturing ISM PMIs and non-farm payrolls data on Friday for clues over the Fed’s next move.
EUR/USD is falling amid USD strength and a quiet EUR economic calendar. Attention will be on Eurozone inflation data later in the week. However, with inflation expected to remain around 2% and the ECB unlikely to move on policy anytime soon, the data is unlikely to have much impact. USD and sentiment will likely be the biggest drivers.
GBP/USD is falling amid a stronger USD and extending losses from last week. The weaker start to the new year comes after GBP/USD rose 8% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance since 2017. The pair’s weakness at the start of the year is more a USD strength story rather than notable GBP weakness. GBP trades a touch higher against the EUR.
Oil falls after US intervenes in Venezuela
Oil prices are falling 1% at the start of the week as investors weigh up US-Venezuelan tensions and the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend.
After Venezuelan President Maduro’s arrest over the weekend by US forces, Trump announced he would be taking control of Venezuelan oil reserves, the largest in the world. However, whether this actually happens remains to be seen. Usually, geopolitical risk in oil-producing countries drives oil prices higher. That hasn’t been the case. US sanctions on Venezuelan oil could be eased, meaning more oil supply to the market.
OPEC+ met on Sunday and left output unchanged after a quick meeting. This reaffirmed its pause in production increases in Q1, reflecting concerns about a supply glut this year as oil prices slipped sharply throughout 2025. Oil prices fell 18% in 2025. OPEC+ producers are showing few signs of desire to resume oil production increases at this stage.
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