Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nasdaq 100 Coiling Uptrend Ahead of NVDA Earnings

When are Nvidia’s Earnings?

Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, August 27 after the market close.

What are Nvidia’s Earnings Expectations

Analysts expect Nvidia to report $1.01 in EPS on $46B in revenue.

Nvidia Earnings Preview

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to release its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, marking two years since the AI boom reshaped the company’s trajectory. Since OpenAI’s ChatGPT ignited demand for generative AI, Nvidia’s revenue has more than tripled and profits have quadrupled, propelling the stock 12X higher since late 2022. To much fanfare, the company recently became the world’s first to hit a $4 trillion market capitalization, underscoring its central role in the AI economy.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings per share of $1.01 on revenue of roughly $46 billion, reflecting a 53% year-over-year sales increase. While still impressive, growth has slowed from the triple-digit surges seen in 2023–24. Data center revenue, driven by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, remains the cornerstone of Nvidia’s business, accounting for nearly 90% of sales last quarter. In fact, analysts estimate about half of all AI capital expenditures ultimately flow to Nvidia, highlighting both its dominance and its reliance on a concentrated customer base.

For this quarter’s earnings report, the spotlight will be on Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU line, which generated $27 billion in sales last quarter and now represents 70% of data center revenue. From previous earnings reports, we can infer that there was relatively strong demand, though much of that will be priced in after a +20% rally since the start of the quarter. As always, forward guidance will be closely scrutinized; Wall Street consensus is calling for Q3 revenue of about $53 billion, but analysts caution Nvidia may guide conservatively by excluding potential H20 chip sales to China (a key geopolitical flashpoint) amid regulatory uncertainty.

Ultimately, the playbook for this quarter may be similar to previous earnings reports: A “beat and raise” quarter could reignite AI enthusiasm, while a softer outlook may raise fears that AI infrastructure spending could (finally) be slowing. Either way, CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on demand, supply, and geopolitics will be pivotal for both Nvidia’s stock and the broader AI trade.

Nvidia Technical Analysis: NVDA Daily Chart

Source: StoneX, TradingView

From a technical perspective, Nvidia (NVDA) itself remains in a well-defined uptrend, putting in consistent higher highs and higher lows above its rising 50-day EMA. The stock has spent the last month consolidating in the $170-$185 range, perhaps in anticipation of this week’s earnings report.

The relatively tight consolidation range could set the stage for a higher-volatility breakout in one direction or another. With options traders pricing in “only” a +/- 6% move on the release, a big surprise could catch traders off-guard given the technical setup. As long as the stock remains above its 50-day EMA (current nearly $167), the path of least resistance will remain to the topside.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart

Source: StoneX, TradingView

After the impressive rally we’ve seen in the last few years, Nvidia now represents nearly 10% of the Nasdaq 100’s weighting, in addition to its significance as a market leader and trendsetter for the broader AI theme that continues to support the tech-focused index.

Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq 100 is in a strong uptrend of its own, holding within a rising bullish channel above its 50-day EMA. Looking ahead, the August high just below the 24,000 level is the key resistance level to watch, with a potential break above confirming the uptrend and opening the door for more gains from here. Meanwhile, previous-resistance-turned-support near 22,150 would be a logical support zone to watch if the uptrend breaks.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX