Oil Price Forecast: WTI Clings to Critical Support– High-Stakes Breakout Ahead

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• Oil prices plunge more than 7.1% off the November high with WTI trading just above pivotal support
• Weekly opening-range intact- breakout to dictate near-term direction
• Broader outlook remains tilted to the downside- a break lower needed to mark downtrend resumption
• Resistance 60.17, 61.43/45 (key), 62.55/90- Support 56.83-57.20 (key), 54.36-55.10, 51.67

WTI crude is clinging to a critical support zone, with price continuing to compress inside the weekly opening range on building momentum divergence. The broader decline has stalled into this key threshold, and the reaction in the coming sessions will be pivotal in determining whether oil stabilizes or breaks lower into another leg of the downtrend. A breakout is imminent with volatility expected to remain elevated as the market digests this high-stakes inflection point. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that WTI was approaching support and that, “The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 56.83 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the multi-year downtrend.” Oil spilled lower later that week, with WTI registering a low close at 57.41 before staging a sharp rebound. The subsequent rally extended more than 11% off the lows but stalled at 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 62.55.

It’s been a steady grind lower for the past five-weeks with WTI once again approaching support into the close of the month and the focus now shifts to potential inflection into the same support zone we were flagging last month- bears on notice.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A look at the daily chart shows WTI continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-July high with the weekly opening range preserved just above the median-line. Note that this slope converges on key support at the 100% extension the June decline and the 2025 low-close at 56.83-57.21. Look for a reaction off this threshold in the days ahead.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading in the middle of the weekly opening-range, just above confluent support. Building momentum divergence into these lows suggests the immediate decline may be vulnerable, and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly range. Resistance is now eyed at the upper parallel which converges on the 38.2% retracement of the September decline at 60.18. Broader bearish invalidation is now lowered to the 61.43/45- a region defined by the 2025 low-week close (LWC), the September low and the November high. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest that a more significant low is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the October highs at 62.55/90 and the 200-day moving average (currently ~64.05).

A break / close below this pivotal support zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 54.36-55.10- a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the broader 2022 decline, the 2016 swing high, and the 2025 swing low. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the June 2019 low-day close at 51.67.

Bottom line: Oil is trading just above a critical support zone on building momentum divergence with the weekly opening-range intact just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 60.18 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 56.83 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex