Crypto Forecast: Bitcoin Collapse Extends 36% Off Record High- BTC/USD Buyers Tempted
Bitcoin plummeted for a fourth consecutive week with a break of the multi-year uptrend approaching pivotal support. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.
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Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels
- Bitcoin breaks multi-year uptrend, extending losses to more than 36% off the record high
- BTC/USD poised to mark largest weekly decline since March- lowest levels since April
- Sell-off extends more than 23% month-to-date with the bears now approaching pivotal support zones
Bitcoin’s collapse deepened this week, plunging more than 10% and threatening to mark its largest single-week loss since March. The plunge takes BTC/USD to its lowest levels since April, and traders are watching for signs of capitulation as volatility spikes. With momentum stretched and sentiment shaken, the next few sessions could decide whether a near-term base forms or another leg lower unfolds. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Bitcoin setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
In my last Cryptocurrency Forecast we note that, “Bitcoin is now testing make-or-break support at a critical pivot zone and the first major test of a multi-year uptrend. Losses would need to be limited to last month’s low IF price is going to turn here with a breach above 118,394 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Note that a close below the yearly upslope could fuel another bout of accelerated declines and risk substantial losses for Bitcoin.” BTC/USD broke below support the following day with Bitcoin plummeting nearly 28% off the November high. The decline now totals more than 36% from the record high registered in October with price plunging six of the past seven weeks.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD breaking below the descending pitchfork extending off the October high with the decline registering an intraday low today at 80,537 before turning. The focus remains on the weekly close with respect to the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance at 83,712-84,000. Note that daily momentum is deep in oversold territory and while the broader risk remains, the immediate decline may be a bit over-extended here.
Initial resistance is eyed with the January low at 89,164 and is backed by 93,347-94,236- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the May low and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and that a larger recovery is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the June low at 98,240 with a close above 106,470 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the multi-year uptrend.
A pivot below 84K on a weekly close basis exposes the next major technical consideration at 78,342-79,584- a region defined by the 2025 weekly close low, the 2025 low-day close (LDC) and the 1.618% of the October decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Losses below this mark would threaten a much steeper sell-off, with subsequent support seen at the March 2024 high and the objective yearly low at 73,679-74,434 and the 50% retracement of the 2022 advance at 70,943.
Bottom line: A four-week decline takes Bitcoin to its lowest levels since April with a break of the multi-year uptrend threatening further losses in the days ahead. Watch the weekly close with respect to 84,000 for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 89,164 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with the next major pivot zone eyed at 78,342-79,584 (area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection).
Review today’s episode of the Opening Bell for a breakdown of this recent move.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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