Crypto Forecast: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Crash into Make-or-Break Support
BTC/USD and ETH/USD plummeted into pivotal support and the first major test of the multi-year uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the Bitcoin & Ethereum technical charts.
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Cryptocurrency Technical Forecast: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Bitcoin and Ethereum have come under pressure, with BTC/USD and ETH/USD plunging into multi-year uptrend support zones.
- Both markets are testing make-or-break levels, with the focus on whether prices can stabilize or risk a deeper breakdown into November trade.
- Traders are watching for a reaction off these pivots as volatility remains elevated — key closes will offer guidance on near-term direction
Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged into the November open, with BTC/USD down more than 16.6% from its record high and ETH/USD off a staggering 25.6%. The decline takes prices into major support zones that define the lower bounds of their multi-year uptrends and marks a critical inflection point for both cryptocurrencies. Traders are looking for signs of stabilization into the monthly open. A rebound from this zone could spark renewed bullish momentum, but a break lower risks opening the door to deeper losses into November trade. Expect elevated volatility as markets digest this pivotal setup. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD and ETH/USD technical charts.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
In last month’s Cryptocurrency Forecast we note that, “While the broader Bitcoin outlook remains constructive, the rally may be vulnerable here while below the monthly high. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 106,470 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 125,985 needed to mark uptrend resumption.” Bitcoin plummeted more than 18% off those highs before rebounding with price holding a well-defined range just above support for a fourth week.
The focus into the start of November is on a key technical confluence at 105,130-106,470- a region defined by the July low and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the lower parallel of the 2024 pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and reaction off this mark may give way to the next directional break in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs with the median-line further highlighting this key pivot zone- risk for exhaustion / price inflection off this threshold.
Initial resistance is now eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the most recent decline at 112,148, with key resistance / near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 117,585-118,394- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the October range and the August high-day close. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold this month and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the August high, the record HDC, and the 1.618% extension of the September rally at 124,517-125,985- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
A break / close below this pivot zone would suggest a larger correction is underway with subsequent support objectives eyed at the June low at 98,240 and 93,639-94,236- a region defined by the May low, the 100% extension of the October decline, and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. This is an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is now testing make-or-break support at a critical pivot zone and the first major test of a multi-year uptrend. Losses would need to be limited to last month’s low IF price is going to turn here with a breach above 118,394 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Note that a close below the yearly upslope could fuel another bout of accelerated declines and risk substantial losses for Bitcoin. Stay nimble into the monthly opening-range and watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
Ethereum Price Chart – ETH/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; ETH/USD on TradingView
In last month’s Ethereum Forecast we noted that ETH/USD was, “vulnerable near-term while below the monthly high. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of this range.” The October range broke lower later that week with Ether plunging more than 28% off the monthly highs before recovering. The decline is now testing confluent support at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 100% extension of the August decline at 3,591/626. Note that basic trendline support extending off the yearly low converges on this threshold over the next few weeks, and the focus is on a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.
Initial resistance is now eyed at the 2024 high and the October low-week close (LWC) at 4,093/156 and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of August decline at 4,370. A breach above this threshold is needed to fuel another run at key resistance with a close above the record high week close (HWC) / 2021 high at 4,779/867 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 5,300 and the 2.618% extension of the yearly advance at 6,032.
A break / weekly close below the April trendline would expose a deeper correction towards the 2024 HWC and the 2025 yearly open at 3,276/333- look for larger reaction off this mark IF reached. Ultimately, losses would need to be limited to this threshold for the broader uptrend to remain viable into the close of the year.
Bottom line: Ethereum is testing a critical support pivot into the start of the month at yearly trend support. Losses would need to be limited to last month’s low IF price is going to turn here with a close above 4,370 needed to charge another test of the highs. Stay nimble into the monthly opening-range and watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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