S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead

Equity Indices Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels

• U.S. equity surged to fresh highs in October despite U.S. government shutdown
• All three-major indices mark third consecutive weekly advance / fresh record weekly closes
• S&P 500 rallies nearly 3.6% in October with the index faltering at resistance last week- constructive above 6669
• Nasdaq rallies nearly 5.5% in October- breakout exhausts near 26000- constructive above 24640
• Dow rally extends nearly 2.8% in October with November seasonally the strongest month of the year- constructive above 46452

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these equity indices and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 notched a third consecutive weekly advance on Friday, with the SPX500 up nearly 2.6% for the month of October. The rally to fresh record highs was halted on Wednesday at a key technical confluence at 6912/83- a region defined by the 2.618% extension of the April advance and the 1.618% extension of the yearly range. The focus is on a reaction off this key pivot zone with daily & weekly momentum marking significant divergence into these highs. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable below this level into the November open.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

A closer look at the S&P 500 daily chart shows in the index attempting to the break channel resistance last week before exhausting post-Fed. Daily support now rest with the 50-day moving average / October open / low-day close (LDC) at 6641/69. Note that channel support converges on this region early in the month and losses will need to be limited to this threshold for the April rally to remain viable. Subsequent support is eyed at the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 6426 and the July high-day close (HDC) / August open at 6342. Broader bullish invalidation is now raised the median-line which converges on the August low at 6214 mid-month.

A topside breach / close above this key hurdle exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the upper parallel (currently near 7070s) and the 1.382% extension of the 2020 advance at 7138.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 is trading just below technical resistance into the start of the month with daily divergence suggesting the immediate rally may vulnerable near-term. Keep in mind that November is seasonally the second highest performing month for the S&P 500. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6669 IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6983 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

 

Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; NDX on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Nasdaq gapped into the open last week with the index breaking above the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the yearly low. NDX rallied nearly 5.5% in October and an embedded channel extending off the late-June lows remains in focus. Risk for possible exhaustion to fill the gap next month but the seasonals again favor continued strength in November.

Weekly support rests with the 2.618% extension of the April advance at 24,640- note that channel support converges on this threshold early in the month and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a near-term high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the August high-week close (HWC) and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range 23,712-23,907.

A topside breach / close above channel resistance exposes the next technical barriers at the 1.618% extension of the broader 2020 advance at 26,609 and the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 28,324.

Bottom line: Nasdaq is trading into channel resistance into the start of the month with weekly momentum reaching the highest levels since July of 2024. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 24640 IF the index is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a weekly close above channel resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Dow Jones Price Chart – DJI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DJI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Dow Jones Industrial Average gapped into fresh record highs last week with DJI exhausting into confluent uptrend resistance post-Fed at 48,000/279. Note that multiple trendlines converge on this region into the start of the month and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone. November is seasonally the strongest month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and while the immediate advance may be vulnerable here, the broader focus remains constructive while within the July channel (red).

Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the October range at 46,452 with bullish invalidation now raised to 45,071/343- a region defined by the 2024 swing high and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway.

A breach / close above this key hurdle exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the April advance / at 48,772, 50,000, and the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening-range breakout at 50,271.

Bottom line: The Dow faltered at uptrend resistance last week. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 46452 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 48,279 needed to fuel the next leg of this advance.

Key Economic Data Releases

Keep in mind that Non-Farm Payrolls will be postponed for a second month amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and traders will be closely watching Wednesday’s ADP employment report for insight into labor market conditions.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
• Crude Oil (WTI)
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) / Ethereum (ETH/USD)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex