S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead

Equity Indices Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels

• U.S. equity stagger near record highs- late week recover preserves uptrend for now
• S&P 500 carves well-defined monthly opening-range just above support- breakout to offer guidance
• Nasdaq marks second consecutive weekly loss with price trading just above multi-month channel support
• Dow exhausts into key resistance zone at fresh record high- July uptrend remains intact with index eking out a 0.34% gain on the week

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these equity indices and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last S&P 500 Forecast we noted that SPX500 was, “trading just below technical resistance into the start of the month with daily divergence suggesting the immediate rally may vulnerable near-term… From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6669 IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6983 needed to mark uptrend resumption” The index plunged 4.2% off the high the following week before rebounding off channel support with price action this week nearly marking a weekly doji (+0.07%). This indecision keeps the focus on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance with the broader long-bias still vulnerable while below key resistance.  

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView

A closer look at the S&P 500 daily chart shows in the index testing channel support twice over the past few weeks with the 50-day moving average continuing to offer support along the lower parallel (currently ~6707). Near-term lateral support remains with at the October open / low-day close (LDC) at 6669 and a break / daily close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway. Subsequent support rests at the October low close at 6552 backed the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 6426- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Monthly open resistance is eyed at 6844 with key resistance steady at 6912/83- a region defined by the 2.618% extension of the April advance and the 1.618% extension of the yearly range. A breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eye at the upper parallel (currently near 7070s) and the 1.382% extension of the 2020 advance at 7138.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 has carved the November opening range just above channel support and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6983 needed to fuel the next major leg of the uptrend.

 

Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; NDX on TradingView

Technical Outlook: On November 1, we noted that, “Nasdaq is trading into channel resistance into the start of the month with weekly momentum reaching the highest levels since July of 2024. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 24640 IF the index is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a weekly close above channel resistance needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” NDX fell nearly 6.3% off the highs and despite multiple briefly registering an intraweek low at 24,535 the index held above channel support on a close basis. Note that momentum has fallen back from overbought conditions with the Nasdaq marking a second consecutive weekly loss (-0.21%).

Key weekly support remains at the 2.618% extension of the April advance at 24640. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a near-term high is in place and a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support rests with the August high-week close (HWC) and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range 23712-23907- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Initial resistance now stands at the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record high at 25,553 and is backed by the monthly open at 26,114 and the 1.618% extension of the broader 2020 advance at 26,609- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Strength surpassing this threshold could fuel another bout of accelerated gains with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the of the 2022 advance at 28,324.

Bottom line: Nasdaq is trading just above multi-month channel support with the immediate focus on a breakout of this week’s range for guidance. Ultimately, losses would need to be limited to 23712 for the yearly uptrend to remain viable with a close above 26,114 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Dow Jones Price Chart – DJI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DJI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In our last update we noted that DJI had exhausted into uptrend resistance at the 1.382% extension of the yearly breakout at 48,279. We highlighted that, “November is seasonally the strongest month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and while the immediate advance may be vulnerable here, the broader focus remains constructive while within the July channel (red).” The index fell more than 3.2% off those highs before rebounding with the subsequent rally failing at resistance again this week.

A topside breach above this pivot zone exposes the 2.618% extension of the April advance at 48,772- note that channel resistance converges on this level next week and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards 50,000, and the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening-range breakout at 50,271.

Initial support now rests with the 61.8% retracement of the October rally at 46,602- note that this level converges on channel support next week and losses below this threshold would threaten a larger setback towards more significant technical support and bullish invalidation at 45,071/343- a region defined by the 2024 swing high and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The Dow faltered at uptrend resistance again last week and the focus is on a breakout of the weekly range for near-term guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4602 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 48,772 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Key Economic Data Releases

Keep in mind that the economic docket remains light and although the government has now officially reopened, it will take time for key data releases to catch up after such a prolonged pause. Stay nimble into labor market updates next week with the ADP employment figures on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on tap Thursday. In the meantime, a continued flurry of Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week, and traders will look for insight into how policymakers view the rate path into year-end after weeks of limited data. Note that interest rate expectations for December have plunged with Fed fund futures now pricing the probability of a cut next month below 50%.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) / Ethereum (ETH/USD)
• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Crude Oil (WTI)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex