Gold has dipped below its three-month uptrend, while Bitcoin has pulled back from a nine-month high as U.S. bond yields test levels last seen in 2004 and 2007. Risks build as Fed rate-hike expectations remain above 70%, while the Dollar Index holds near yearly highs above 101.
This combination of stretched bond yields, elevated dollar strength, and growing geopolitical tensions across key energy-transportation routes could help identify potential longer term market reversals or breakouts, particularly as the U.S. midterm elections approach.
U.S. 10-Year and 30-Year Bond Yields — Monthly Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
The key levels to watch on the Treasury-yield charts are 5.30% for the 10-year yield, a level last seen in 2007, and 5.60% for the 30-year yield, last seen in 2004.
These levels represent important resistance zones that could help determine whether yields continue higher or experience a significant reversal. Overbought weekly momentum risks date back to 2022-2023 on both charts. Their direction remains critical for market risk sentiment and precious-metals trends.
Bitcoin Price Outlook — 3-Day Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Following its rebound from weekly oversold conditions last seen in 2022 and the psychological 60,000 level, Bitcoin advanced toward highs last seen in January near 87,000.
At the same time, daily momentum is retesting overbought conditions, while rising bond yields and renewed rate-hike expectations are increasing market caution. This combination highlights short-term pullback risks.
The current pullback is being assessed through Fibonacci retracement levels of the June–September advance:
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79,000 — 27.2% retracement
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76,000 — 38.2% retracement
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72,000 — 50% retracement
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69,000 — 61.8% retracement and potential dip-buying zone
A breakdown below these levels would increase bearish risks toward the yearly lows and could align with a broader risk-off move across financial markets.
However, with yields already testing extreme resistance levels, reversal risks may be building. This could result in a short-term Bitcoin pullback rather than a lasting bearish trend. A close back above 87,000 would redirect attention toward 90,000, 95,000, and 100,000.
Gold Price Outlook — Daily Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
On the daily time frame, gold is facing pressure from the sharp rise in Treasury yields after breaking below its three-month uptrend and the 4,240 support level.
The July–September advance is currently testing key support near 4,120, which also corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. This zone could provide another potential reversal opportunity.
A break below 4,120 would expose the psychological 4,000 level and the yearly lows, creating the possibility of another major dip-buying opportunity or a potential 500-point drawdown.
On the upside, reclaiming 4,240 and 4,300 would reinforce the bullish outlook and realign price action with the three-month uptrend. Further resistance levels stand near 4,400, 4,570, and 4,700, defined using the Fib extension tool across the July-September wave.
Gold Price Outlook — 6-Month Time Frame — Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a 6-month perspective, the strength of the yearly low near 3,960 highlights a key confluence zone. This area combines resistance from the 2016–2026 structure, now acting as support, with the 27.2% retracement of the all-time advance between 1920 and 2026.
A confirmed breakdown below 3,960 would likely amplify the bearish wave toward the 38.2% retracement near 3,400. This level also aligns with the five-month resistance zone established in 2025 and could become another major dip-buying area.
For now, the primary risk remains short-term volatility and pullback pressure. Crude oil prices remain constrained below their seven-month barriers, while Treasury yields are testing multidecade resistance levels. As geopolitical negotiations continue and the U.S. midterm elections approach, the interaction between yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin will remain critical for identifying the next broader market reversal.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
